TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Belgium qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,069
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$36,217

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,069 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb747…b050backed No12c8,891$1,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,780.635145.1%23 W · 28 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf5b…23cabacked No61c2,938$1,781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,156.563941%16 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes71c2,653$1,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,871.234731.9%15 W · 32 L-5.4wins-0.11per pick43cpaid+3.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x77a1…de3dbacked Yes74c2,080$1,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,538.153836.8%14 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f50…4db9backed No33c1,896$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,265.111553.3%8 W · 7 L+3.7wins+0.25per pick28cpaid+112.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes65c1,765$1,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,141.1822927.9%64 W · 165 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd535…fa67backed Yes67c1,007$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.263839.5%15 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ea0…9928backed No30c895.69$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.141127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-39.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes12c832$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.842114.3%3 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61e6…43a8backed Yes66c734$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.07728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed Yes3c588$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.64175.9%1 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick6cpaid+194.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22eb…ad17backed Yes75c537.32$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4012020%4 W · 16 L-5.7wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-72%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x2c37…92a4backed Yes73c509.99$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.292030%6 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-35.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes68c500$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3402245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+23.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed No32c494.35$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.3414835.8%53 W · 95 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x80e0…7ffabacked No30c475.63$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.232070%14 W · 6 L+4.3wins+0.22per pick48cpaid+93.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x64d7…512abacked Yes75c439.44$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.48812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed No33c427$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.1319939.2%78 W · 121 L-0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No25c424.48$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.627027.1%19 W · 51 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes73c410.75$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.227139.4%28 W · 43 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No24c368.37$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.5424732%79 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-21.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c1a…2b23backed Yes78c271.92$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe07…d839backed No25c227.1$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.324344.2%19 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3def…08b4backed No22c204.05$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.051435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4258…dc75backed No15c199.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.991040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76dc…17b4backed No35c199.99$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.997234.7%25 W · 47 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed Yes67c177.95$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.717345.2%33 W · 40 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+24%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked No27c160$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.82245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes69c145.72$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.286533.8%22 W · 43 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fa5…8f79backed Yes73c136.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001540%6 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfda…bedebacked Yes80c123.75$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.391225%3 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-55%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd470…783ebacked No11c114.98$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.142040%8 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid+38.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9c1…c1b8backed No18c111.11$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.113327.3%9 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dee…f4e6backed Yes79c109.63$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.114953.1%26 W · 23 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a48…22e8backed Yes72c108$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.672356.5%13 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick67cpaid-14.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b7a…4817backed No31c106.6$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.943444.1%15 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b0b…3f0bbacked No25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$753935.9%14 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid+13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd42b…48c8backed No16c100$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc324…4cd6backed Yes66c100$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+60.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb39…c696backed Yes76c96.6$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.681816.7%3 W · 15 L-3.9wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-51.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3ce3…b625backed No25c89.57$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.18450%2 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+169%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd33a…7576backed No15c70$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.51414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No32c67$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.314629.7%45 W · 417 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes67c60.86$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7816334.4%56 W · 107 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No28c60$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436240.3%25 W · 37 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes67c60$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.45139.2%20 W · 31 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa009…ab48backed No27c54.64$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.644761.7%29 W · 18 L+7.6wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+42.3%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xeb99…8c33backed No35c49$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.073842.1%16 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid+3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf385…4864backed Yes78c45.92$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.884447.7%21 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+6.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x461a…4030backed Yes70c45.18$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.71540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+63.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb18…6ed0backed Yes71c45$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick61cpaid-43.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9b9c…7420backed No25c44.6$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.52250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+101.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e5a…5721backed No34c36.67$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.33955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick32cpaid+92.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4fa7…7c24backed Yes71c32.36$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick65cpaid-54.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ca0…e17abacked Yes72c27.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207549.3%37 W · 38 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked Yes65c22$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.31127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.24per pick51cpaid-49.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x87cd…6f2abacked Yes71c21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.912755.6%15 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf7e…d8afbacked Yes78c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.62638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b5b…e1b1backed Yes75c19.52$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5550%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.