Music · resolved market
Will Belgium qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x946ee25560bd6be1530dc3338fba3f829b6a35250b6f17701867421b5e4db2f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,217
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 12c | 8,891$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,780.63 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5b…23cabacked No | 61c | 2,938$1,781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,156.56 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 71c | 2,653$1,871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,871.23 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77a1…de3dbacked Yes | 74c | 2,080$1,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,538.15 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed No | 33c | 1,896$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,265.11 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 28cpaid | +112.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 65c | 1,765$1,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,141.18 | 229 | 27.9%64 W · 165 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd535…fa67backed Yes | 67c | 1,007$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.26 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea0…9928backed No | 30c | 895.69$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.14 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 12c | 832$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61e6…43a8backed Yes | 66c | 734$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.07 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 3c | 588$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed Yes | 75c | 537.32$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -5.7wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -72%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2c37…92a4backed Yes | 73c | 509.99$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.29 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 68c | 500$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed No | 32c | 494.35$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.34 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80e0…7ffabacked No | 30c | 475.63$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.23 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +4.3wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…512abacked Yes | 75c | 439.44$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.48 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 33c | 427$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.13 | 199 | 39.2%78 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 25c | 424.48$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.62 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 73c | 410.75$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.22 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 24c | 368.37$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.54 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1a…2b23backed Yes | 78c | 271.92$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe07…d839backed No | 25c | 227.1$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.32 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3def…08b4backed No | 22c | 204.05$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.05 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4258…dc75backed No | 15c | 199.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed No | 35c | 199.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.99 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed Yes | 67c | 177.95$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.71 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked No | 27c | 160$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.8 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 69c | 145.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.28 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa5…8f79backed Yes | 73c | 136.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfda…bedebacked Yes | 80c | 123.75$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.39 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd470…783ebacked No | 11c | 114.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.14 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c1…c1b8backed No | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.11 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed Yes | 79c | 109.63$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.11 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed Yes | 72c | 108$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.67 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed No | 31c | 106.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.94 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked No | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc324…4cd6backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb39…c696backed Yes | 76c | 96.6$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.68 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce3…b625backed No | 25c | 89.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +169%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd33a…7576backed No | 15c | 70$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 32c | 67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.31 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 67c | 60.86$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 163 | 34.4%56 W · 107 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 28c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 67c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…ab48backed No | 27c | 54.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +7.6wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 35c | 49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed Yes | 78c | 45.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed Yes | 70c | 45.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed Yes | 71c | 45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 61cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9c…7420backed No | 25c | 44.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…5721backed No | 34c | 36.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 32cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa7…7c24backed Yes | 71c | 32.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca0…e17abacked Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 65c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked Yes | 71c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7e…d8afbacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5b…e1b1backed Yes | 75c | 19.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Belgium qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?this page
- Will Albania qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Azerbaijan qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Croatia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Cyprus qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Estonia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Iceland qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Netherlands qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Norway qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Poland qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Portugal qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will San Marino qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Slovenia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Ukraine qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.