Music · resolved market
Will Estonia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b55f47b70cf3fc51e830b5dc0f98971440d2ca41f0fbb84efa9af435f5fda66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,960
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,053
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,960 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 2c | 15,128$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.71 | 229 | 27.9%64 W · 165 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…ceabbacked No | 1c | 9,940$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.34 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 2c | 7,827$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.54 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…42c0backed No | 1c | 3,895$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed No | 2c | 2,738$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.46 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c78…f414backed No | 2c | 2,292$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 2c | 1,250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62c4…191fbacked No | 2c | 1,146$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed No | 2c | 1,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ea…7eb1backed No | 3c | 1,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c1…c1b8backed No | 2c | 901.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…5efebacked No | 3c | 790.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 26cpaid | +100%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee1…9801backed No | 2c | 572.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked No | 2c | 508$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec51…9c68backed No | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…2f18backed No | 9c | 155$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Estonia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?this page
- Will Albania qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Azerbaijan qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Belgium qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Croatia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Cyprus qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Iceland qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Netherlands qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Norway qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Poland qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Portugal qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will San Marino qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Slovenia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Ukraine qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.