TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Ukraine qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$97,529
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$107,478

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,529 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb747…b050backed No3c14,844$434 inLost-$434.365145.1%23 W · 28 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked No5c10,454$486 inLost-$485.947723.4%18 W · 59 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-31.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No3c5,000$157 inLost-$157.4722927.9%64 W · 165 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28f0…ceabbacked No3c4,721$160 inLost-$160.41315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-73.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x454c…bd22backed No5c4,630$211 inLost-$211.27468.7%4 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick9cpaid+96.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e69…d84bbacked No9c2,122$200 inLost-$200650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfda…bedebacked No5c1,573$75 inLost-$74.991225%3 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-55%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf31a…838bbacked No9c1,491$134 inLost-$133.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9521…766bbacked No3c1,179$40 inLost-$40.15185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick10cpaid-77%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe07…d839backed No3c1,000$26 inLost-$264344.2%19 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked No5c1,000$46 inLost-$45.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58f4…12a9backed No4c820.4$32 inLost-$32248.3%2 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-50.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No5c790.52$41 inLost-$41.054731.9%15 W · 32 L-5.4wins-0.11per pick43cpaid+3.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No4c781.06$29 inLost-$28.9424732%79 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-21.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7fa…d16dbacked No3c605$20 inLost-$19.97825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-41.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No3c500$13 inLost-$12.924946.9%23 W · 26 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked No8c486.64$40 inLost-$39.99540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd46c…f641backed No4c400$15 inLost-$15.14240.5%17 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed No6c400$25 inLost-$24.714440.9%18 W · 26 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x403b…db3bbacked No7c346.18$24 inLost-$24.23425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-35.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc34…dba3backed No3c343$11 inLost-$10.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdd9…4b4bbacked No4c316$12 inLost-$11.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5002…7b36backed No4c315$12 inLost-$11.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdd8…aa3cbacked No4c293$11 inLost-$11.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cff…c3dabacked No5c226$11 inLost-$10.884129.3%12 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.