TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will San Marino qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$253,484
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$254,129

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $253,484 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4cf5…ab60backed No53c44,437$23,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,551.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49c3…fb55backed Yes47c44,437$20,885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,551.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffc7…9ecabacked Yes47c39,821$18,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,105.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd085…df33backed No53c39,821$21,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,105.13250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf97…5923backed No37c30,015$11,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,105.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f96…1da6backed Yes63c30,015$18,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,105.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes54c2,979$1,608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,371.24731.9%15 W · 32 L-5.4wins-0.11per pick43cpaid+3.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No40c2,268$898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$897.9922927.9%64 W · 165 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed No51c1,226$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.8214835.8%53 W · 95 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf27a…1d05backed No44c1,149$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.381729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-55.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed No43c1,102$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.6910235.3%36 W · 66 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfca…96bbbacked Yes59c1,012$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.17580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+49.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb5df…15edbacked Yes47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+35.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb39…c696backed Yes51c924.24$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.641816.7%3 W · 15 L-3.9wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-51.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x56d4…9c57backed No38c911$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.182835.7%10 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed Yes61c841.99$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.385145.1%23 W · 28 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8017…d7debacked Yes47c800$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4242100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+149.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x46f1…a5b0backed No53c755$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f5b…b598backed Yes59c733.85$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.812755.6%15 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd535…fa67backed No51c709.71$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.933839.5%15 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed No40c699.99$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2815139.2%20 W · 31 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…a3c3backed Yes60c692.36$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.331250%6 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1479…487cbacked Yes62c580.79$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.891330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick17cpaid-14.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xad89…f6e1backed No54c476.73$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.976253.2%33 W · 29 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No44c390.74$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.2424732%79 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-21.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd174…f2aebacked No56c365$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8235…c814backed No53c365$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe07…d839backed No45c350.33$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.184344.2%19 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x553a…d31ebacked No53c340$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.220%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed No45c304.21$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.2519939.2%78 W · 121 L-0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf968…84bdbacked No42c300$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1264928.6%14 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+41.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a08…2e25backed No50c277$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.57626.3%20 W · 56 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+32.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes45c264.37$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.47027.1%19 W · 51 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c8e…0824backed No53c245$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.85560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+20.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ee1…9801backed Yes55c241.82$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.825320.8%11 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-32.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed Yes50c241.69$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.357345.2%33 W · 40 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+24%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked No54c231$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.747723.4%18 W · 59 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-31.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0ff…ca90backed Yes54c229$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.343438.2%13 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf385…4864backed Yes54c210.82$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.314447.7%21 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+6.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5825…4ffbbacked No48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003953.8%21 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4e83…a4a0backed Yes62c200.63$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.632733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-27.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd46c…f641backed No33c194$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.934240.5%17 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb38a…8237backed Yes53c184.27$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.72666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick58cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2e2…4d51backed Yes48c176.94$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.94933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb32…b21ebacked No47c176.6$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832445.8%11 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-27.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d8e…d191backed Yes57c175.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.862634.6%9 W · 17 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick25cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x312d…6814backed No46c173.9$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.993154.8%17 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c44…e239backed Yes58c171.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.41333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Yes58c166.72$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.474643.5%20 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+38.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ab4…4427backed Yes42c160$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4216…2daabacked Yes47c160$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9c4…a0b3backed Yes67c157.16$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.866100%6 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+115.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc550…272dbacked Yes63c150$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.51233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+355.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x242b…de00backed Yes58c141.5$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.431241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a0…eefbbacked No54c141.46$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87cd…6f2abacked No47c129$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.792755.6%15 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e00…c7dcbacked No53c125$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.2540%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x76dc…17b4backed No31c123.46$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.267234.7%25 W · 47 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf7e…d8afbacked No52c120$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.42638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb99…8c33backed No47c119$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.593842.1%16 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid+3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a25…81d1backed No39c115$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.93429.4%10 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yes56c102.52$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.015738.6%22 W · 35 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ec0…f1b8backed No49c102.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-53%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce4c…a1fcbacked Yes45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-29%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed No39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394440.9%18 W · 26 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0978…00e6backed Yes54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462540%10 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81c1…974cbacked Yes45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick55cpaid+89.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked No52c99.99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.763545.7%16 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc33…d2f0backed Yes69c98.71$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.71714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-79.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fd7…468ebacked No37c98.26$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.36450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4a6…db37backed Yes61c95.32$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.86616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.37per pick53cpaid-72.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed No53c93.17$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.163737.8%14 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-30.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6dee…f4e6backed No53c86.46$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.754953.1%26 W · 23 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6cc…47bbbacked No53c85$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.05250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa890…1c30backed No56c85$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+58.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes49c82.06$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.061625%4 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-45.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd9e…3723backed Yes52c77.41$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.411225%3 W · 9 L-3.4wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-55%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7e69…d84bbacked Yes55c71.47$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.16650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed No47c67$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.494141.5%17 W · 24 L+5.0wins+0.12per pick29cpaid+10.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xfe82…5c81backed No45c60$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279333.3%31 W · 62 L+10.8wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+76%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes54c57.03$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.3815119.2%29 W · 122 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick21cpaid+48.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes36c56.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.031656.3%9 W · 7 L+5.6wins+0.35per pick21cpaid+237.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xf701…5d7abacked Yes58c53.45$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.452100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+51%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e27…d603backed No44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223831.6%12 W · 26 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-26.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3602…b407backed Yes58c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213141.9%13 W · 18 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe300…3a04backed No42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-44.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes39c48.56$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.646435.9%23 W · 41 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+37.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa009…ab48backed No46c45.26$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.84761.7%29 W · 18 L+7.6wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+42.3%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No37c44$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2822640.3%91 W · 135 L-10.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ea4…c506backed Yes52c42.31$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.31580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.35per pick45cpaid+109%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a48…22e8backed Yes67c42$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.862356.5%13 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick67cpaid-14.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x204c…df35backed Yes55c41.82$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.821752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee65…24d9backed No48c41.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201216.7%2 W · 10 L-3.2wins-0.26per pick43cpaid-54.1%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xb26e…becdbacked Yes49c41.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.221154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97df…3088backed Yes66c41$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.941163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x07cb…b6cabacked Yes49c40.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.82633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick20cpaid-29.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc900…4faebacked Yes63c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+34%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes68c36.25$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.614938.9%58 W · 91 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cff…c3dabacked No36c35.96$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.124129.3%12 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ee8…fac3backed No52c33.94$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.