Music · resolved market
Will Norway qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9582bb5898d6f470cbea1b68c13246d305dbf5e9c92e7752bfe1ee74fc83df13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $177,250
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $182,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $177,250 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa3c4…b335backed No | 16c | 54,211$8,674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,673.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5b…23cabacked No | 16c | 16,684$2,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,685.14 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 16c | 10,220$1,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,655.76 | 229 | 27.9%64 W · 165 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 17c | 3,814$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.24 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed No | 18c | 2,881$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.65 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 28cpaid | +112.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd794…efe1backed No | 17c | 2,596$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.94 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed No | 16c | 2,371$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.16 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked No | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb1…b027backed No | 23c | 880.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 14c | 803.62$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.43 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 15c | 750.51$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.09 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 22c | 650$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce3…b625backed No | 21c | 575.5$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +169%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc7…d48ebacked No | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd535…fa67backed No | 15c | 511.74$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.76 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd46c…f641backed No | 22c | 437$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.14 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 18c | 430$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.1 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc011…6a60backed No | 17c | 426.19$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.19 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked Yes | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed No | 18c | 395.3$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e55…2b2abacked No | 18c | 393$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed No | 18c | 384.5$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.21 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 17c | 384.44$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.09 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 16c | 335$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.89 | 199 | 39.2%78 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed No | 20c | 300$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +4.3wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7fa…d16dbacked No | 18c | 278.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed No | 15c | 232.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked No | 16c | 193$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 151 | 19.2%29 W · 122 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 20c | 182$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed No | 22c | 137.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 17c | 128.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ec…7b2ebacked No | 23c | 121$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 149 | 38.9%58 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…c3dabacked No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…ca90backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed No | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -5.7wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -72%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 15c | 79.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…b407backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Norway qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?this page
- Will Albania qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Azerbaijan qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Belgium qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Croatia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Cyprus qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Estonia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Iceland qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Netherlands qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Poland qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Portugal qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will San Marino qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Slovenia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Ukraine qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.