Music · resolved market
Will Poland qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53d7d1e655068b79dcfce5b57c689f30550901f2f643f17f28942efe19bff4b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,405
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,445
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,405 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcfda…bedebacked No | 16c | 7,000$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 16c | 5,329$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$833.58 | 229 | 27.9%64 W · 165 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked No | 14c | 4,823$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.2 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 19c | 886.99$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.66 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd794…efe1backed No | 19c | 871.52$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.02 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed No | 23c | 600$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.5 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb39…c696backed No | 23c | 501.22$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.28 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked No | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc5…0c52backed No | 20c | 495.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Yes | 79c | 368.03$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.95 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x863d…4770backed No | 18c | 314.38$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…f529backed No | 15c | 241.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 18c | 201.39$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 18c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…5efebacked No | 17c | 116.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 26cpaid | +100%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked No | 19c | 104.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4258…dc75backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x284a…30edbacked No | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf968…84bdbacked No | 16c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x915c…c1a9backed No | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 19cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e27…d603backed No | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…686fbacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bc…fd0abacked Yes | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Poland qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?this page
- Will Albania qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Azerbaijan qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Belgium qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Croatia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Cyprus qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Estonia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Iceland qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Netherlands qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Norway qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Portugal qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will San Marino qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Slovenia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Ukraine qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.