Music · resolved market
Will Portugal qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfae80311640912c9f9a28870b948e3b57ef705cd469e87f2bb16c15e63c9964e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,116
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 15c | 5,951$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,077.68 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 29c | 3,747$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.16 | 229 | 27.9%64 W · 165 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 32c | 1,718$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,173.4 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc5…0c52backed Yes | 20c | 1,516$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,215.81 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…42c0backed Yes | 16c | 1,010$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850.25 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x107c…5f0fbacked Yes | 16c | 937.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 39c | 867.8$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.94 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 11c | 832$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.52 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c4…a0b3backed Yes | 21c | 647.52$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.54 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +115.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5006…b409backed Yes | 17c | 607.78$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.64 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 23cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd975…0a3ebacked Yes | 59c | 500$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed No | 77c | 478.66$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.91 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed Yes | 36c | 379.12$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.78 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd882…0c09backed Yes | 16c | 323.31$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.29 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Yes | 24c | 292$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c61…ac8bbacked Yes | 22c | 251$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.78 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd535…fa67backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…8a13backed Yes | 14c | 173.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +246.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2877…2f89backed Yes | 20c | 148.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10a1…d269backed Yes | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…76ddbacked Yes | 16c | 141.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.18 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…f199backed Yes | 15c | 130$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae35…4fbbbacked Yes | 16c | 129.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +169.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca0…e17abacked Yes | 16c | 124.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.12 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1862…9f15backed Yes | 17c | 122.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +112.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed No | 80c | 120.12$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b07…e35abacked Yes | 16c | 117.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +430.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…f529backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.65 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8e…d191backed Yes | 19c | 107.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.46 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd46c…f641backed No | 76c | 105.95$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.04 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 79c | 100.04$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.75 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 149 | 38.9%58 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37ef…39b9backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62c4…191fbacked Yes | 21c | 95.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcb…36f0backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x915c…c1a9backed Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.75 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 19cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…5570backed Yes | 22c | 90.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.96 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5055…7f31backed Yes | 20c | 90.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +404.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf968…84bdbacked Yes | 21c | 82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.38 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 80c | 81.3$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.04 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x622e…3bf2backed Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 79c | 47.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 73c | 42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 77c | 23.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 61cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked No | 65c | 20.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 151 | 19.2%29 W · 122 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked No | 75c | 20.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Portugal qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?this page
- Will Albania qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Azerbaijan qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Belgium qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Croatia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Cyprus qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Estonia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Iceland qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Netherlands qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Norway qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Poland qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will San Marino qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Slovenia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Ukraine qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.