TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Iceland qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,976
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,526

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,976 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbf5b…23cabacked Yes69c3,221$2,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,002.693941%16 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No61c3,013$1,851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,851.3222927.9%64 W · 165 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed Yes41c2,148$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,267.245145.1%23 W · 28 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x22d3…5e3abacked No63c1,842$1,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,161.476642.4%28 W · 38 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+34.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x649f…993ebacked No59c1,200$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7062015%3 W · 17 L-4.8wins-0.24per pick39cpaid-77.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x8816…629cbacked No65c1,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked No55c918.46$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.974643.5%20 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+38.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No12c832$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.84175.9%1 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick6cpaid+194.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No12c832$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.842114.3%3 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ea0…9928backed No68c796.6$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.271127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-39.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c6e…07c3backed Yes35c670$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.5475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick43cpaid+85.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdcc5…0c52backed Yes45c660.04$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.041330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+36.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02e4…7793backed Yes35c605$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+48.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd174…f2aebacked Yes36c605$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes41c600$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3524946.9%23 W · 26 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed No53c593.3$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.1114835.8%53 W · 95 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9500…ebbcbacked No65c590$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x66e7…24c2backed No59c555$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.45267.7%2 W · 24 L-4.5wins-0.17per pick25cpaid-86.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes46c517.12$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.464440.9%18 W · 26 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a25…81d1backed Yes33c489$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.253429.4%10 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb39…c696backed No59c465$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.351816.7%3 W · 15 L-3.9wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-51.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1240…3a3fbacked Yes43c411.29$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.46580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.35per pick45cpaid+113.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8017…d7debacked Yes35c380$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2472100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+149.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e83…a4a0backed Yes29c346.8$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.82733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-27.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0bd…2b47backed Yes36c300$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa20a…d03ebacked Yes35c300$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1951100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf7e…d8afbacked Yes44c295$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.372638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd46c…f641backed Yes32c290$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.634240.5%17 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97df…3088backed Yes51c279.03$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.181163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x144d…f0f2backed Yes43c240$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+35%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b3a…02bfbacked Yes42c240$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7a2…f3b9backed Yes42c235$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.32100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+108.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10c8…56f5backed Yes42c230$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5a5…9f24backed Yes42c230$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf339…1d40backed Yes42c225$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf27a…1d05backed No72c217.52$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.341729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-55.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x50bc…63dabacked Yes48c200$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+29.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa877…f204backed Yes41c200$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.451361.5%8 W · 5 L+4.1wins+0.31per pick30cpaid+71.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes29c180.41$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.2715119.2%29 W · 122 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick21cpaid+48.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe07…d839backed No59c180$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1074344.2%19 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No67c179.44$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.124731.9%15 W · 32 L-5.4wins-0.11per pick43cpaid+3.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xca46…b2ebbacked No58c175$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58cd…f1cdbacked No58c175$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76dc…17b4backed No59c171.15$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.217234.7%25 W · 47 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8877…e6ccbacked No58c170$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.6250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bb2…4490backed No58c170$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6546…feecbacked No58c165$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf54…5abbbacked No58c165$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5364…b4debacked No58c165$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.720%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fab…9d63backed No58c165$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes38c162.31$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.654461.4%27 W · 17 L+6.2wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+21.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Yes38c160.52$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.521435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No69c160.2$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.9316334.4%56 W · 107 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed No73c155$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.419939.2%78 W · 121 L-0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x994f…d982backed No65c155$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick67cpaid-53.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe300…3a04backed No57c150$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.11136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-44.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9873…7cc5backed No68c146.38$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-43.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x51f7…ae1fbacked No57c135.29$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.717343.8%32 W · 41 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c97…1b68backed Yes34c127.99$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.671553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+32.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed Yes31c118.3$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.127345.2%33 W · 40 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+24%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1479…487cbacked Yes32c118.29$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.431330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick17cpaid-14.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb99…8c33backed No68c114.15$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.323842.1%16 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid+3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes41c110.41$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.985139.2%20 W · 31 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7fa…d16dbacked Yes34c107.26$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.72825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-41.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd882…0c09backed Yes40c105$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632425%6 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-26.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5825…4ffbbacked No59c103.21$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.483953.8%21 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6770…45fbbacked No68c100$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.759335.5%33 W · 60 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fd7…468ebacked Yes28c100$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.15450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03f9…b09ebacked Yes33c100$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-40.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3602…b407backed Yes43c99.99$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.993141.9%13 W · 18 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4258…dc75backed Yes41c99.68$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.311040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes62c97.07$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.47027.1%19 W · 51 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No73c94.14$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.5422640.3%91 W · 135 L-10.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce59…0431backed Yes45c91.93$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.93366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+33.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4a6…db37backed No61c89.55$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.87616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.37per pick53cpaid-72.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2c61…ac8bbacked Yes41c80$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478234.1%28 W · 54 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d1…3377backed No64c78.13$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No67c75.56$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.916533.8%22 W · 43 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4216…2daabacked No64c75$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9597…62e9backed No65c75$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7520%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6dee…f4e6backed No58c74.02$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.294953.1%26 W · 23 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x588d…099abacked No59c74$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.912835.9%46 W · 82 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes31c63.58$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.872343.5%10 W · 13 L+5.0wins+0.22per pick22cpaid+123.6%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x4177…5efebacked Yes32c63.13$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.12757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.31per pick26cpaid+100%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3a48…22e8backed No74c61.17$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.992356.5%13 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick67cpaid-14.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked Yes23c60$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.27723.4%18 W · 59 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-31.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf385…4864backed Yes41c56.27$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.094447.7%21 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+6.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3547…7064backed No65c55$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7520%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6457…834fbacked No64c55$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x312d…6814backed No59c54.89$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.183154.8%17 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2d5…3629backed Yes37c54.05$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.05250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+35.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed No65c52.52$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343737.8%14 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-30.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x55d6…9cddbacked Yes48c50.15$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+27.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a08…2e25backed Yes41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.57626.3%20 W · 56 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+32.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaeed…074bbacked No59c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.54746.8%22 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x61e5…7bd5backed No64c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1296…0d1fbacked No65c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid+8.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x48ec…b68fbacked No64c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-29.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c0…c408backed No65c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeccd…76ddbacked Yes46c48.69$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.19825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.