Music · resolved market
Will Croatia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa85c7e3010537a0f8685b303b8d40819aec1d307302e123a10e558b53e582e6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,026
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,506
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,026 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19c1…708fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,535$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb39…c696backed Yes | 11c | 408.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c3…0c2abacked Yes | 17c | 308.49$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc5…0c52backed Yes | 17c | 236.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Yes | 12c | 180$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdd…da39backed Yes | 13c | 159.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +139.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…0f82backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…f529backed Yes | 15c | 135.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 15c | 125$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…f199backed Yes | 16c | 123.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x454c…bd22backed Yes | 11c | 119.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 11c | 101.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 151 | 19.2%29 W · 122 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 149 | 38.9%58 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x577e…ab13backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d9…8608backed Yes | 12c | 95.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -82.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf968…84bdbacked Yes | 15c | 88.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50bc…63dabacked Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed No | 80c | 66.02$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Croatia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?this page
- Will Albania qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Azerbaijan qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Belgium qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Cyprus qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Estonia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Iceland qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Netherlands qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Norway qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Poland qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Portugal qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will San Marino qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Slovenia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Ukraine qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.