Movies · resolved market
Will 'Adolescence: Limited Series' be the top global Netflix show this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4399b01371af25cc6a669a509b3731284a0b016cc57522aa73c279acfd068486
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,365
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,551
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,365 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ba5…c282backed No | 3c | 1,001$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Yes | 39c | 671.98$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.26 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e98…0009backed No | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 79c | 487.44$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.65 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 11c | 383.26$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.27 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 69c | 297.83$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.78 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…1322backed No | 62c | 280.53$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Yes | 72c | 248.69$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.69 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 54c | 223.12$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.47 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes | 17c | 217.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Yes | 30c | 217$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +230.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7e…8a48backed Yes | 16c | 195$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +293.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 23c | 116.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.9 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…42b4backed No | 43c | 61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 20.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd757…94aabacked Yes | 80c | 18.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Adolescence: Limited Series' be the top global Netflix show this week?this page
- Will 'American Murder: Gabby Petito: Season 1' be the top global Netflix show this week?No won
- Will 'Running Point: Season 1' be the top global Netflix show this week?No won
- Will 'Temptation Island: Season 6' be the top global Netflix show this week?No won
- Will 'Zero Day: Limited Series' be the top global Netflix show this week?No won
- Will another show be the top global Netflix show this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.