Movies · resolved market
Will 'Running Point: Season 1' be the top global Netflix show this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4a7028135dcfd3dd4bafa21078e40e11a571cc10fe5e0e78ca32d748d4c229d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,909
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,775
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,909 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 78c | 1,249$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.57 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked No | 22c | 1,000$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +362.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked No | 23c | 946.5$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.62 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa27b…5d5cbacked Yes | 11c | 542$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.62 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 39c | 499.98$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.19 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 76c | 279.68$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.53 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 78c | 208.09$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.3 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 25c | 196.95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.24 | 59 | 20.3%12 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 149.86$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x47e1…95c0backed Yes | 75c | 133.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa7…5455backed Yes | 48c | 125.62$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.04 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 15c | 113.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 18c | 106.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.83 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd713…4662backed Yes | 29c | 85.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…882fbacked Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde6b…bd36backed Yes | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed Yes | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 70c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Running Point: Season 1' be the top global Netflix show this week?this page
- Will 'Adolescence: Limited Series' be the top global Netflix show this week?Yes won
- Will 'American Murder: Gabby Petito: Season 1' be the top global Netflix show this week?No won
- Will 'Temptation Island: Season 6' be the top global Netflix show this week?No won
- Will 'Zero Day: Limited Series' be the top global Netflix show this week?No won
- Will another show be the top global Netflix show this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.