Movies · resolved market
Will 'Black Bag' gross more than 7m on opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefc7b5387a7f40dbeb70926e469cb1add149b1041b3df767997d956ff78509eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,477
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,184
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,477 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 39c | 6,189$2,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,434.3 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…e6dbbacked Yes | 64c | 3,752$2,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,355.45 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 41c | 2,771$1,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,637.59 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed No | 2c | 2,332$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed Yes | 53c | 1,311$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.74 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 20c | 1,157$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.83 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a11…6df2backed Yes | 44c | 1,090$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.46 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Yes | 71c | 1,026$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.33 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed No | 57c | 957.03$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.99 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked No | 21c | 905$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.31 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed No | 11c | 862.5$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.29 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed No | 6c | 650$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 128 | 6.3%8 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…9210backed Yes | 51c | 647.49$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.98 | 101 | 23.8%24 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 52c | 629.88$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.4 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab72…1582backed No | 2c | 570$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 29c | 527.88$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.79 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked No | 4c | 450$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe3eb…c286backed Yes | 77c | 430.43$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.43 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes | 43c | 351.72$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.09 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 9c | 348.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 44c | 305$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.1 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 13c | 302.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 70c | 258.89$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.73 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa7…5455backed Yes | 37c | 257.5$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.43 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 71c | 250$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed No | 10c | 224.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 63c | 204.17$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.16 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed Yes | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.23 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 51c | 184.89$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.95 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked No | 15c | 136$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20f4…5ffcbacked Yes | 61c | 127.66$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.66 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe22…66b3backed Yes | 29c | 122.27$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.67 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…42b4backed No | 59c | 119.89$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.83 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked No | 57c | 108$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.86 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 39cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 100.2$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.11 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…9b81backed Yes | 72c | 90.27$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed No | 24c | 84.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc20b…2cc0backed Yes | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7865backed Yes | 57c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe803…c90bbacked Yes | 57c | 59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 78c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc813…44dabacked No | 45c | 39.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e87…ef0dbacked Yes | 35c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd713…4662backed No | 45c | 35.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d55…7cbabacked Yes | 46c | 34.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 13cpaid | +127.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Black Bag' gross more than 7m on opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Black Bag' gross between 3-5m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Black Bag' gross between 5-7m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Black Bag' gross less than 3m on opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.