TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

China Taiwan · resolved market

Trump bans China from buying US farmland?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$443,230
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$438,234

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $443,230 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x046c…1f1dbacked Yes46c132,030$60,734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60,733.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4384…bb5ebacked No54c132,030$71,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60,733.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79de…324dbacked No42c68,142$28,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,522.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa083…0795backed Yes58c68,142$39,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,522.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2806…03cfbacked Yes4c3,319$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0ae…9b16backed Yes26c1,999$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes8c1,994$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.9840%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62cf…5826backed No74c1,955$1,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf27a…1d05backed Yes10c1,662$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.7170%0 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes6c1,200$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.962010%2 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked No76c1,151$877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.37933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes1c1,148$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.35137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick7cpaid-90.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes4c1,054$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.183043.3%13 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick32cpaid-6.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x22cc…ef97backed Yes14c979$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.7640%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x49d5…2e07backed No42c899.92$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.16250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes7c895.78$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.442626.9%7 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x59a5…afc8backed No65c883.41$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+55%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e5…b7e6backed Yes9c882.52$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes7c856.55$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.8150%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes7c766$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-18.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6021…31a6backed Yes4c478$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes3c412$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7640%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes7c407.95$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick37cpaid-30.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed Yes24c401.98$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.481315.4%2 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-58.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd6d…f860backed No51c392.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x013d…3e88backed No70c364.49$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes35c358.31$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.411338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45ec…3652backed Yes4c304.81$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes26c300$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77140%0 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa198…106abacked Yes24c298.02$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5771…fe1abacked Yes36c274.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dee…3ff1backed No47c230.86$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+113.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Yes54c207.76$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes28c200.1$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3640%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7090…4433backed Yes50c199.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes14c195.44$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.774325.6%11 W · 32 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-48.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdeef…e421backed Yes58c175.19$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No78c169.98$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.85345.3%24 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes36c168.22$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.073225%8 W · 24 L-7.5wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-65.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No69c157.84$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.433928.2%11 W · 28 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-51.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce99…42c1backed No64c157.46$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x98a3…0884backed Yes57c156.02$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24ed…9f94backed Yes36c153.56$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x22bd…a216backed No72c150.74$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.92250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-30.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95c1…1c27backed No74c146.49$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cf8…843abacked No73c136.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-54.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No48c133.02$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.41136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-34.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes9c119.78$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.11428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-28.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ed0…92debacked No71c111.27$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31a4…1ee7backed Yes58c106.78$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0557…f3a5backed Yes38c100.3$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9118…e9dabacked Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38b2…1a2dbacked No77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+28.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fdf…8903backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes44c94.21$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.390%0 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x467f…b1dbbacked No64c93.73$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x00b4…d144backed Yes50c91.64$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc3e…e98fbacked Yes23c91.3$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2140%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde26…0972backed No63c90.15$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No52c86.85$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+93%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa386…a3aebacked Yes34c85.29$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0487…d452backed Yes18c75.63$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.530%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x138e…42b4backed No72c74.15$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x869a…bb9cbacked Yes27c74.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8f7…071cbacked Yes27c74.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe939…4836backed Yes58c65.95$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4859…932ebacked Yes54c64.61$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.89250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes20c58.22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.821330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd713…4662backed Yes31c55.84$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c55…e0f8backed No75c53.33$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.332100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabe9…09b5backed Yes38c52.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff60…2bf3backed Yes58c52$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd737…71bbbacked Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes26c45.41$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121277.9%10 W · 117 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-38%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06b9…f7fcbacked No45c44.24$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+121.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3694…950fbacked Yes34c43.57$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e7…b19dbacked No42c42.92$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b2a…460abacked No68c42.82$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c71…14a4backed No48c42$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+110%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0aa9…8b03backed No73c42$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fb4…b700backed No50c40.72$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a63…2eb3backed No74c40.36$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.363100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes46c37.47$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3780%0 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbc12…b452backed Yes56c35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d6…f013backed Yes62c32.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9a0…dbf0backed No52c32$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9951…ce13backed No64c31.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xccfa…ca44backed Yes40c31.12$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6243…09ebbacked Yes57c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fae…ce9fbacked Yes55c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc00c…24a7backed No64c29.55$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a0f…157bbacked Yes68c29.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb03…4bdfbacked No70c28.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.57366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b71…4d3ebacked Yes50c28.46$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x452d…2da7backed Yes48c26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf85b…5663backed Yes63c25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.75250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd62…2b7ebacked No80c22.25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7551…6c92backed No47c21.68$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc8c…5f95backed Yes50c21.36$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6693…5fcbbacked Yes50c21.36$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.