Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on March 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7ab2ededdb14bdceecb8ab5d32725e581e177f226fd5eb4d3e291bf22d01ad5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,407
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 2c | 1,029$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 6c | 780.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.53 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 3c | 621.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 13c | 436.52$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 63c | 362.05$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.74 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa112…d215backed Yes | 60c | 331.45$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.76 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…c97bbacked No | 40c | 290$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 74c | 270.23$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.23 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…9f20backed No | 50c | 266$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.2 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 27c | 249.14$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…235abacked No | 40c | 245$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbc…1054backed No | 41c | 230$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.7 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.54per pick | 47cpaid | +132.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92bd…019dbacked No | 41c | 205$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +355.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa06a…2aa7backed No | 40c | 165$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 49cpaid | +112.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c79…7d41backed Yes | 60c | 165$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x994f…d982backed No | 41c | 160$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaecc…1f6ebacked No | 41c | 160$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe020…b970backed Yes | 59c | 155$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0641…1985backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed No | 38c | 148.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.46 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c1…e8b0backed Yes | 30c | 139.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6673…13ccbacked No | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2d…95d2backed Yes | 60c | 120$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd535…262bbacked Yes | 60c | 115$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +148.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb47…bfccbacked Yes | 59c | 115$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc12…f2edbacked Yes | 59c | 110$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ec…d991backed Yes | 60c | 110$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ff…7be3backed Yes | 60c | 110$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…6122backed Yes | 59c | 110$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 62cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaae8…ec24backed Yes | 60c | 110$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked No | 80c | 103.38$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f0…97bbbacked No | 50c | 77.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +25.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…dd70backed Yes | 59c | 67.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 170 | 40%68 W · 102 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc191…488fbacked Yes | 36c | 62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +33%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…b3f8backed No | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e00…c7dcbacked Yes | 59c | 55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3750…1b58backed Yes | 59c | 55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6072…fb46backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd112…c648backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3a…236cbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 31cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81d0…2731backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +86%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc8…6d54backed Yes | 59c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 67cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb6b…a620backed Yes | 60c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 67cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c4…9434backed Yes | 48c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 174 | 24.1%42 W · 132 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +153.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40f0…3f9cbacked No | 64c | 42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb05…8f47backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…e730backed No | 60c | 39.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 186 | 40.3%75 W · 111 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xab2b…2ff0backed Yes | 59c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -71%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0907…51edbacked Yes | 59c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…3257backed Yes | 60c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c60…e152backed Yes | 59c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf736…dfadbacked Yes | 59c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45a9…628fbacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc12…1e02backed No | 65c | 28.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f90…bacebacked Yes | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee7a…25debacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93aa…60cebacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…a8babacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1636…e45fbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b66…1b4ebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on March 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 57°F or below on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on March 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 64-65°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on March 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.