TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Trump releases JFK files by Tuesday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$856,237
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$750,303

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $856,237 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 265 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x15d7…2921backed No0c82,212$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.9330%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No10c31,891$3,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,2143859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed No2c25,743$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.867146.5%33 W · 38 L+9.9wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+84.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2139…4b34backed No1c25,556$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.138632.6%28 W · 58 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick25cpaid-13.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed No3c21,130$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.096740.3%27 W · 40 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+22.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8a4c…532bbacked No3c19,527$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.712040%8 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+12.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed No15c18,415$2,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,685.876145.9%28 W · 33 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7d4…8ceabacked Yes61c16,829$10,306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,523.19540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid-38.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a15…68abbacked No18c15,210$2,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,755.37728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-38.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No7c13,219$911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$910.5423149.4%114 W · 117 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed No33c10,005$3,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,333.193930.8%12 W · 27 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-22.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed No1c9,577$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.2110749.5%53 W · 54 L+10.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+61.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No11c9,427$1,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,028.5821022.4%47 W · 163 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-24.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No14c8,766$1,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,269.4241238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes40c8,577$3,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,112.4423639.4%93 W · 143 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48bd…9d3bbacked Yes78c8,526$6,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8412445.8%11 W · 13 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed No34c7,330$2,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,501.496221%13 W · 49 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79b2…4874backed No18c5,437$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995.68119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick25cpaid-87.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa975…f137backed No66c5,421$3,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,574.82633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-53.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No24c5,334$1,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,262.5314940.9%61 W · 88 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffb…a834backed Yes51c5,305$2,689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,615.295343.4%23 W · 30 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb059…a79abacked Yes60c5,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,000250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked Yes33c4,991$1,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,324.846053.3%32 W · 28 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+34.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed No2c4,474$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.511419.3%22 W · 92 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd685…8be9backed Yes53c4,292$2,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,024.96256.5%35 W · 27 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+34.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb8d…70febacked No38c4,279$1,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,621.842650%13 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb54…6e4bbacked Yes52c3,525$1,822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,702.58650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes43c3,472$1,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,985.4416854.8%92 W · 76 L+22.8wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+56%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xf612…5700backed No18c3,315$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.576251.6%32 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x52f5…19dabacked No4c3,307$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.092927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed No13c3,225$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.1512630.2%38 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+105.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80da…4f6dbacked No26c3,037$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$790.3519436.1%70 W · 124 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x81fa…41c9backed No1c2,847$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.66812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-77.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7011…c6dabacked No4c2,680$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.3640%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x863f…8775backed No11c2,500$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+47%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45d9…f84bbacked No11c2,479$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.835038%19 W · 31 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3499…2858backed Yes53c2,474$1,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,155.45580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick70cpaid+17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63d4…a2f1backed No65c2,449$1,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,593.891936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-33.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x87a0…4e12backed Yes61c2,324$1,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902.512630.8%8 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-42.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7846…f646backed No2c2,300$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.2520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-74.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd281…d2f2backed No17c2,175$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.26520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-40.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc116…a70abacked No34c2,068$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57c5…07aabacked No1c2,000$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.84057.5%23 W · 17 L+5.8wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+15.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7713…432ebacked No13c1,980$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8e6…9767backed No6c1,904$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.796858.8%40 W · 28 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes75c1,900$1,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.5469634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3f6b…fba5backed No32c1,812$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.232321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-48.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed No41c1,786$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.184427.3%12 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5172…0581backed No7c1,764$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.953112.9%4 W · 27 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick8cpaid+96.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x843a…8070backed Yes17c1,680$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,386.934040%16 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed No12c1,670$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.0415032.7%49 W · 101 L+7.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-17.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe71c…dcecbacked No76c1,632$1,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,247.041258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+52.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0802…8cb0backed No10c1,581$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.55666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+29.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xba0f…ca2bbacked No14c1,556$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb83a…2a7ebacked Yes65c1,543$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.42837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick27cpaid-18.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes69c1,530$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.776041.7%25 W · 35 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xae00…f7b0backed No66c1,517$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes44c1,510$663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$847.1814241.5%59 W · 83 L+9.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xded5…d9cabacked Yes15c1,507$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,285.087825.6%20 W · 58 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-26.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ea…17ebbacked No63c1,488$935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.98739.1%34 W · 53 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49b2…ffd0backed No3c1,470$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9170%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8933…1495backed No39c1,455$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.45850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba2c…bf17backed No4c1,431$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.12366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95b9…1a27backed Yes49c1,382$673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708.96475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick37cpaid+58.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a73…2cc5backed No6c1,336$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.2450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked No6c1,263$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.3813818.1%25 W · 113 L-0.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7830…783fbacked No63c1,231$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.221952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x347a…83e3backed No6c1,212$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.134233.3%14 W · 28 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf18f…294cbacked Yes65c1,183$771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.32832.1%9 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c4b…4554backed No18c1,170$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.21060%6 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+28.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3b93…9ec4backed No40c1,170$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.612643.7%55 W · 71 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+24.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8390…8f8bbacked Yes77c1,132$872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.251330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-55.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd110…cb4cbacked No6c1,128$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.1520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-71%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x055c…e4adbacked No9c1,127$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1011145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed No7c1,097$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.6611538.3%44 W · 71 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+44.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcaab…24ddbacked No8c1,079$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.042548%12 W · 13 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+46.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc9b6…9b6abacked No32c1,059$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.274143.9%18 W · 23 L+6.7wins+0.16per pick28cpaid+88.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2aa5…a556backed No2c1,057$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3630%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa672…f083backed No12c1,000$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1211553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No78c1,000$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.278453.6%45 W · 39 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01b7…89a4backed No17c941.46$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…9c96backed No68c901.75$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes43c860.36$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.128231.7%26 W · 56 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed No58c835.66$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.2213673.5%100 W · 36 L+28.4wins+0.21per pick53cpaid+47.4%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xfc97…0238backed No16c788.44$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e9f…c17cbacked No6c769$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.854314%6 W · 37 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-35.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d13…a018backed No12c752.97$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.842339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-32.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d2f…4adbbacked No7c702.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501030%3 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-60%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc45…13bdbacked No53c691.25$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.472948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+41.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e99…9206backed No15c689.26$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.711428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-46.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc7e…3f3dbacked No7c688.08$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.481816.7%3 W · 15 L-3.8wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-73.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x542a…a81bbacked No16c683.8$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101007%7 W · 93 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-67.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebed…97bebacked No16c643.63$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.44425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43b9…d6e1backed No16c636$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-64.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No10c596$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5911121.6%24 W · 87 L+11.4wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+179.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3c64…d9e5backed No17c587.56$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07a4…fd85backed No51c580.78$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.161216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-65.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0523…e38bbacked No30c558.26$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.436833.8%23 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-40.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes30c550$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38528320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No8c547.1$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.219435.1%68 W · 126 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.