Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Will a #1 seed lose in the first round of NCAA Tournament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbb1af40541da4b841f7c4576bd497cbdd3ca73ee4f5d465511d3aac3c1615ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,870
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,870 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +56%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3e…662cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yes | 1c | 1,456$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 4c | 1,064$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 136 | 9.6%13 W · 123 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86e3…ad70backed Yes | 5c | 977.04$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 36cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe156…77acbacked Yes | 5c | 929.42$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 4c | 890.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 3c | 888$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed Yes | 6c | 827.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 5c | 800$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Yes | 4c | 776$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 5c | 650$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 399 | 3.3%13 W · 386 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c43…d471backed Yes | 4c | 618$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 5c | 498.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f0…97bbbacked Yes | 7c | 449.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -77%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…20abbacked Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…1575backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.