NBA · resolved market
Hornets vs. Thunder
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab85338311effb76ba4d47dacba904e8fda2abe916f173f1f31d389e3e6d36fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Hornets, Thunder
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $239,395
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $223,600
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $239,395 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x310d…b64dbacked Hornets | 7c | 18,045$1,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,263.16 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Hornets | 7c | 15,000$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 1,782 | 28%499 W · 1,283 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…085fbacked Hornets | 7c | 12,772$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.61 | 166 | 17.5%29 W · 137 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…f65cbacked Hornets | 6c | 11,797$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.8 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa33…8dbcbacked Hornets | 6c | 10,841$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.04 | 294 | 50.3%148 W · 146 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd8…858ebacked Hornets | 3c | 10,500$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.5 | 365 | 14.2%52 W · 313 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe59b…488ebacked Hornets | 5c | 10,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 723 | 41.2%298 W · 425 L | +23.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2863…0e3ebacked Hornets | 6c | 9,713$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.78 | 157 | 41.4%65 W · 92 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf5…6440backed Hornets | 6c | 8,320$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.28 | 469 | 28.4%133 W · 336 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…f328backed Hornets | 7c | 8,286$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.87 | 381 | 43%164 W · 217 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ee…bf85backed Hornets | 6c | 5,167$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298 | 200 | 31%62 W · 138 L | +18.2wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b35…a749backed Hornets | 8c | 5,104$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383 | 364 | 23.4%85 W · 279 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Hornets | 5c | 3,679$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.96 | 569 | 45.3%258 W · 311 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Hornets | 7c | 3,200$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 308 | 26.6%82 W · 226 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0766…3e65backed Hornets | 7c | 2,714$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed Hornets | 5c | 1,953$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.63 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Hornets | 8c | 1,500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 686 | 42.1%289 W · 397 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…4bb7backed Hornets | 7c | 1,479$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.49 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb652…2db4backed Hornets | 1c | 1,452$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 376 | 27.9%105 W · 271 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27d2…a66cbacked Hornets | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 214 | 50%107 W · 107 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…b24ebacked Hornets | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 161 | 29.8%48 W · 113 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Hornets | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 296 | 43.2%128 W · 168 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49b2…ffd0backed Hornets | 8c | 1,340$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.8 | 156 | 13.5%21 W · 135 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf28a…bcd4backed Hornets | 2c | 1,214$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -75%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…7a1bbacked Hornets | 7c | 1,100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 169 | 28.4%48 W · 121 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…a1e9backed Hornets | 8c | 1,035$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.69 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadbe…bc55backed Hornets | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 504 | 53.8%271 W · 233 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27d1…43a0backed Hornets | 7c | 785.71$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…b6eebacked Hornets | 2c | 765$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 550 | 2.5%14 W · 536 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f0…97bbbacked Hornets | 2c | 736.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…03c2backed Hornets | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…06c2backed Hornets | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,888 | 37.3%704 W · 1,184 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92b…fa4dbacked Hornets | 7c | 571.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Hornets | 7c | 538$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 283 | 47.7%135 W · 148 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccd…62b5backed Hornets | 6c | 525.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…1282backed Hornets | 7c | 515.14$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ca…e34ebacked Hornets | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Hornets | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 930 | 36.5%339 W · 591 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2563…b813backed Hornets | 7c | 448.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Hornets | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 958 | 48.7%467 W · 491 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cf…5e03backed Hornets | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24b9…bcb1backed Hornets | 7c | 391.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 370 | 11.4%42 W · 328 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff5…6063backed Hornets | 7c | 367.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Hornets | 5c | 364.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2c…a0a4backed Hornets | 7c | 357.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…25b2backed Hornets | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Hornets | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 855 | 42%359 W · 496 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ae…cb95backed Hornets | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 260 | 49.2%128 W · 132 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e14…f3cebacked Hornets | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Hornets | 4c | 261$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 734 | 45.5%334 W · 400 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a0…16e9backed Hornets | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 718 | 23.3%167 W · 551 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ac…5e6ebacked Hornets | 7c | 250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 72 | 2.8%2 W · 70 L | -12.1wins | -0.17per pick | 20cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc3…14dbbacked Hornets | 7c | 242.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…9d02backed Hornets | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 261 | 24.1%63 W · 198 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Hornets | 6c | 199.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…91edbacked Hornets | 7c | 179.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68b0…c482backed Hornets | 7c | 171.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…1643backed Hornets | 7c | 156.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf901…51d3backed Hornets | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…54c7backed Hornets | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Hornets | 9c | 112.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 248 | 46.4%115 W · 133 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.