Us Politics · resolved market
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xccf5ec6e7d759a1fa96e10cab0f754fbd18ce96e91d67e7200fc2947c45b9f90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,488,182
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,384,401
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,488,182 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 231 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 2c | 57,574$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867.66 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…7baebacked Yes | 12c | 55,175$6,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,819.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 1c | 37,874$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.47 | 98 | 10.2%10 W · 88 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 4c | 32,626$1,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,354.55 | 129 | 10.9%14 W · 115 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 1c | 32,000$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6155…7ebbbacked Yes | 3c | 30,420$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…d8aebacked Yes | 7c | 27,886$1,862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,861.67 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7830…783fbacked Yes | 8c | 26,040$2,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,012.9 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…d154backed Yes | 3c | 25,991$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfae9…8148backed Yes | 4c | 24,297$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 5c | 23,878$1,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,288.87 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffa…b3c4backed Yes | 6c | 23,287$1,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,289.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…74babacked Yes | 12c | 19,339$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 5c | 15,579$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.55 | 114 | 19.3%22 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4e…c0e2backed Yes | 2c | 15,000$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…f83ebacked Yes | 3c | 14,792$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…372abacked Yes | 14c | 13,881$1,943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,943.34 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6275…ab3fbacked Yes | 6c | 12,979$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcd…25e8backed Yes | 12c | 12,453$1,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,491.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x311c…4ceebacked Yes | 3c | 11,323$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…b45bbacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…a726backed Yes | 8c | 9,977$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7aa…d0f0backed Yes | 11c | 9,005$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.5 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x838c…5c82backed Yes | 12c | 8,531$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…2539backed Yes | 8c | 8,090$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 4c | 7,655$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.47 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cab…6817backed Yes | 10c | 7,400$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.68 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa699…785fbacked Yes | 1c | 7,061$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 1c | 6,710$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.24 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 1c | 6,420$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 1cpaid | +230%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…7512backed Yes | 2c | 6,019$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 13c | 6,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 1c | 5,991$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa278…22cbbacked Yes | 1c | 5,847$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No | 70c | 5,811$4,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,751.8 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…efbabacked Yes | 3c | 5,785$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 3c | 5,700$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.45 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef19…91e7backed Yes | 2c | 5,388$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d75…838bbacked Yes | 2c | 5,000$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a1…7c68backed Yes | 6c | 5,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 4c | 4,873$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.65 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2201…42e2backed Yes | 15c | 4,755$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.7 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf296…9839backed Yes | 0c | 4,500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 4,382$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc33…d2f0backed Yes | 2c | 4,285$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d6a…0040backed Yes | 3c | 4,000$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.51 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed Yes | 5c | 3,903$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.94 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…658cbacked Yes | 13c | 3,808$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked Yes | 11c | 3,694$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.61 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 8c | 3,590$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.61 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9c…ad87backed Yes | 6c | 3,519$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.29 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -48%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…758ebacked Yes | 8c | 3,297$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.67 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 5c | 3,236$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.01 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0347…e0e5backed Yes | 5c | 3,095$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f32…3e2cbacked Yes | 11c | 2,988$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.22 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…8665backed Yes | 5c | 2,985$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 2c | 2,896$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad1…cb3cbacked Yes | 7c | 2,884$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…0618backed Yes | 12c | 2,751$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 31cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf0…5c64backed Yes | 9c | 2,561$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83f…1527backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…a8b2backed Yes | 10c | 2,466$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7098…c92ebacked Yes | 13c | 2,415$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…a005backed Yes | 5c | 2,376$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 7c | 2,361$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.24 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 14c | 2,355$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.26 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4076…c448backed Yes | 3c | 2,342$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 9c | 2,307$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe855…c225backed Yes | 2c | 2,200$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,190$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.1 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9682…738bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,150$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 10c | 2,109$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.29 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…017ebacked Yes | 10c | 2,089$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…54c7backed Yes | 4c | 2,027$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.43 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x377e…a9d3backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04f1…5069backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.74 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0682…4250backed Yes | 2c | 1,954$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfade…283bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,927$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27d1…43a0backed Yes | 3c | 1,807$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f70…b854backed Yes | 1c | 1,770$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 4c | 1,751$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.05 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x48bd…9d3bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,732$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,700$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.29 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 9c | 1,700$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.97 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,698$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…905ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,666$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd814…9346backed Yes | 13c | 1,618$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccc…a831backed Yes | 12c | 1,595$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 3c | 1,551$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3cc…f104backed Yes | 4c | 1,517$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4b…4382backed Yes | 8c | 1,500$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.65 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe85e…775fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,482$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f0…97bbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,422$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c46…a137backed Yes | 1c | 1,392$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa810…fd25backed Yes | 10c | 1,305$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.42 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f7…266fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,300$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc024…edbebacked Yes | 17c | 1,222$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 6c | 1,193$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.4 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd92c…c62ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,193$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.