Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump post less than 80 times on Truth Feb 28 - March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf370c4ea5135048df5319557ea76c8b02c81ecefe5c8ba1dad6f8cb3305ad48c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,479
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,970
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,479 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 9c | 1,505$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,371.5 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 58c | 1,017$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.33 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d15…c1c2backed Yes | 44c | 755.97$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…e579backed Yes | 6c | 615.1$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.1 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…25b2backed Yes | 5c | 498.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.69 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 30c | 498.5$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.73 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1714…130ebacked Yes | 80c | 383$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 3c | 300$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.8 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b9…c2b6backed No | 63c | 245.42$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.54 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +213.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe742…7559backed Yes | 28c | 235.89$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.89 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f0…97bbbacked No | 29c | 206$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -86.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 21c | 200.34$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.88 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06d8…1aefbacked Yes | 31c | 149.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.24 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 133.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.17 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…9b81backed No | 72c | 80$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e0…0fedbacked Yes | 78c | 61.79$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 49c | 54.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…05d6backed No | 71c | 48.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e74…93bcbacked Yes | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8524…7d91backed Yes | 73c | 33.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec12…f0d5backed Yes | 68c | 29.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x296a…fb2fbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump post less than 80 times on Truth Feb 28 - March 7?this page
- Will Trump post 100-109 times on Truth Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Trump post 110-119 times on Truth Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Trump post 120-129 times on Truth Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Trump post 130-139 times on Truth Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Trump post 140-149 times on Truth Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Trump post 160 or more times on Truth Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Trump post 80-89 times on Truth Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Trump post 90-99 times on Truth Feb 28 - March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.