Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump post 80-89 times on Truth Feb 28 - March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb600c4834224538301ad137f31ea54eb31e7eeba8a9a8909e8d7ed06e25bf5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,030$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,141$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…e579backed Yes | 5c | 1,020$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.64 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…35c0backed Yes | 2c | 999.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 95 | 5.3%5 W · 90 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe742…7559backed Yes | 4c | 668.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 11c | 578.53$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.52 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06d8…1aefbacked Yes | 7c | 462$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 18c | 328.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.83 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c98…280fbacked Yes | 5c | 302.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 22c | 269.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.89 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 149$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes | 44c | 136.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 102 | 20.6%21 W · 81 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 24c | 118.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x186c…5db1backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c1…2f25backed Yes | 26c | 42.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e1…072cbacked Yes | 48c | 32.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 78c | 20.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump post 80-89 times on Truth Feb 28 - March 7?this page
- Will Trump post 100-109 times on Truth Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Trump post 110-119 times on Truth Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Trump post 120-129 times on Truth Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Trump post 130-139 times on Truth Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Trump post 140-149 times on Truth Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Trump post 160 or more times on Truth Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Trump post 90-99 times on Truth Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Trump post less than 80 times on Truth Feb 28 - March 7?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.