Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on March 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4de4778f60e6586bf4062709de8398d3ada24c5ac11443c8e20eeb5c15b3d37d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,344
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,788
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,344 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 33c | 999.99$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 15c | 760.76$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.63 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 16c | 399.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.3 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92b…fa4dbacked Yes | 40c | 393.9$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.33 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 49c | 331.75$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.85 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 10c | 300$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc40f…88fcbacked Yes | 73c | 288.72$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.1 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…94bcbacked Yes | 34c | 215.03$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.65 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 30c | 207$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.66 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x079b…ec97backed Yes | 55c | 166$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed Yes | 62c | 162.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.09 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked No | 62c | 161.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | -14.8wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 117$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.63 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 25c | 111$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…8d19backed Yes | 40c | 84.87$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.87 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 72.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.15 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…dd70backed Yes | 43c | 70.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.23 | 170 | 40%68 W · 102 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f0…97bbbacked No | 42c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 74c | 70$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -36%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe261…a8b6backed Yes | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 74c | 56.25$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 57c | 50.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcda5…ed66backed Yes | 48c | 48.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed No | 56c | 40.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed No | 39c | 30.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dda…a70abacked Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…d820backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 254 | 36.6%93 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed Yes | 61c | 29.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd867…1256backed Yes | 65c | 28.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…09ebbacked Yes | 77c | 26.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…7eb8backed No | 64c | 25.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 56c | 25.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…d019backed No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on March 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 67°F or higher on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 65-66°F on March 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.