TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on March 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$38,342
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$38,439

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,342 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1e20…fd40backed Yes1c9,489$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507030%21 W · 49 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+55.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1203…2cd2backed Yes1c7,120$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06b0…afd6backed Yes1c4,455$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401330.8%4 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid+74.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x037b…9f20backed Yes58c1,110$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.117447.3%35 W · 39 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes12c858.56$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.862506%15 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-67%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b7c…51cbbacked Yes4c561.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc369…4e87backed Yes8c500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406417.2%11 W · 53 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick17cpaid+20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9241…f41cbacked Yes55c366.65$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2009647.9%46 W · 50 L-14.8wins-0.15per pick63cpaid-21.6%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x73e1…072cbacked No54c314.83$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.131346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick60cpaid-30%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed Yes17c310.2$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.157220.8%15 W · 57 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick22cpaid+4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8f8…0f11backed No36c297.63$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.4496620.7%200 W · 766 L+59.8wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+96.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd744…c531backed No58c252$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.842100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x563c…9a1ebacked Yes42c250$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ace…ed20backed No55c238.94$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.665375.5%40 W · 13 L+6.7wins+0.13per pick63cpaid+20.2%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xe92b…fa4dbacked Yes21c190$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.46637.9%25 W · 41 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-1.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa291…d88dbacked Yes33c182.47$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.5219126.2%50 W · 141 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3d9…c9e0backed Yes26c180$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf322…7a9ebacked Yes68c160.84$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dfc…aefebacked Yes19c122$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.18250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa568…12f6backed Yes22c115.15$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.912924.1%7 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f34…5602backed Yes20c101$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3114…acd6backed Yes56c100.05$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1620%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes65c100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8332133.3%107 W · 214 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked Yes60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6025947.5%123 W · 136 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed No36c100$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd4e2…2ae5backed No73c94$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7d9…fc3fbacked Yes15c94$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.110833.3%36 W · 72 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+79.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x256b…607cbacked Yes21c93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4623…42ffbacked No74c91$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x333c…20f6backed No79c90$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97a4…fdeabacked No74c89$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.142100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9457…3ac1backed Yes33c80$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed No40c77.5$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.6360235.7%215 W · 387 L+41.3wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+37.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdab1…6666backed Yes27c77$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb182…005fbacked No64c73.55$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6660033.8%203 W · 397 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x793f…4ee5backed Yes27c70.36$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ca8…0538backed Yes22c70$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63bc…1e4bbacked Yes35c69$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5581…f322backed No70c64$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.24100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+103.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7257…f5e9backed Yes29c64$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbb7…a768backed Yes27c62$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7f0…97bbbacked Yes48c60.31$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.951435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77cd…454ebacked Yes31c59$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4a7…bc10backed Yes51c57$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a6c…1ffcbacked Yes28c56$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4423…eae9backed Yes21c55$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.55250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x452e…ecbdbacked No58c55$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeced…0d50backed No71c53$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc18…5b5fbacked Yes32c52$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8af0…5b7abacked Yes22c52$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d89…2fb7backed No80c51$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5862…50e0backed Yes42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1126339.9%105 W · 158 L+17.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x647b…13f1backed Yes42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc369…6a9dbacked Yes39c49$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b70…d9babacked Yes30c48$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa243…51a7backed Yes31c47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51f6…7a86backed Yes30c47$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73d0…d7c0backed Yes27c47$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52c8…ca2cbacked Yes35c46$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad86…cc82backed Yes42c45$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+235.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a2d…ced6backed Yes39c45$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1613…f271backed Yes48c45$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa76f…ca65backed Yes32c43$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91d4…2aa7backed Yes42c42$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd00…ccdbbacked Yes30c42$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5417…cc57backed No49c42$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75dc…4252backed Yes26c41$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.66250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick37cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x555e…938abacked Yes28c41$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x329b…c012backed Yes29c37$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x046e…fb22backed No49c37$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed9c…fd40backed No80c37$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d36…f2a0backed No58c35$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3db9…a73abacked No65c34$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1226…ca15backed No72c34$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90f3…a272backed No58c34$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x061b…3769backed Yes39c33$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7261…db76backed Yes39c33$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2deb…33dcbacked No68c32$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc4b…d41dbacked No70c32$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x943f…52acbacked No58c31$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a8…4995backed No71c31$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x428e…7c29backed No49c31$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a32…c291backed No58c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf437…c43dbacked No78c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87f4…49e7backed No72c29.6$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.435068%34 W · 16 L+9.9wins+0.20per pick48cpaid+39%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xaead…87a4backed No49c29$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.792100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+65.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe39b…e64dbacked Yes49c29$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.21250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d96…267fbacked Yes51c28$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c3b…5020backed No52c28$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd53a…fc5ebacked Yes48c28$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe38e…b648backed Yes49c28$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.72250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+85.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe103…5f67backed No49c28$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.282100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+84%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd79b…da6fbacked Yes51c28$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x061b…9787backed No51c27$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31a9…93b1backed Yes51c27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x698d…e0f1backed No65c27$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb53…e5c4backed No72c27$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.562100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick68cpaid+48.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.