TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on March 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,084
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,470

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,084 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd8f8…0f11backed No2c2,439$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.396620.7%200 W · 766 L+59.8wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+96.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed No2c1,510$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.541,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e20…fd40backed Yes36c433.21$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.217030%21 W · 49 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+55.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x202a…7779backed No61c368$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x800a…7915backed Yes39c271$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb3e…ce88backed Yes31c264$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed No39c245.01$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9660235.7%215 W · 387 L+41.3wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+37.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbe28…5f08backed No68c228$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa291…d88dbacked Yes27c220.9$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.6219126.2%50 W · 141 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe92b…fa4dbacked Yes40c200$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.56637.9%25 W · 41 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-1.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xabea…7989backed Yes39c170$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x73e1…072cbacked No72c160$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.61346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick60cpaid-30%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x432b…8fe1backed Yes32c148$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed Yes34c137.9$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.617220.8%15 W · 57 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick22cpaid+4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1203…2cd2backed Yes38c133.33$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.33425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ace…ed20backed No57c121.49$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.765375.5%40 W · 13 L+6.7wins+0.13per pick63cpaid+20.2%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x0279…71b4backed No61c119$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes27c100$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa877…f204backed Yes35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6511449.1%56 W · 58 L+17.9wins+0.16per pick33cpaid+104.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked Yes34c100$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6625947.5%123 W · 136 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeabf…c587backed Yes39c96$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ccb…b817backed No69c94$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.8620%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe10c…819fbacked Yes39c92$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.12366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+52.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…5a5abacked No69c88$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes21c87$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.582,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9706…9d72backed No68c83$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.44250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec84…cb9ebacked No62c81.55$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.331942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf596…026cbacked No64c79.71$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.666937.7%26 W · 43 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+6.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfef3…5464backed Yes28c77$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06b0…afd6backed No26c76.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201330.8%4 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid+74.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x716c…c00ebacked Yes32c72$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6cab…6fd2backed Yes27c69$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5458…43fcbacked Yes32c69$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.92250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+56.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No45c66.96$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303636.1%13 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87f4…49e7backed No56c66.04$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.195068%34 W · 16 L+9.9wins+0.20per pick48cpaid+39%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x6d8c…1ba7backed Yes32c66$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3df4…57dfbacked No41c65.73$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9511254.5%61 W · 51 L+20.1wins+0.18per pick37cpaid+75.9%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xd989…144cbacked No69c63$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.47250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa568…12f6backed Yes30c62.55$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.492924.1%7 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a72…3427backed Yes32c62$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe334…61fdbacked No73c62$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3eca…84c9backed No61c60$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x40e8…c1febacked No57c58.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.62425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-63.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4e5…20f6backed Yes27c57$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0c…6d5cbacked Yes28c56$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe38e…b648backed Yes27c55$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.15250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+85.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ecc…b289backed No61c53$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3320%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes31c52.66$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.5732133.3%107 W · 214 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a9f…b06bbacked Yes39c52$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.72250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07b4…ccbdbacked Yes31c51$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8542…90c6backed No68c49$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.32425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-59%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce93…cdddbacked No67c49$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x295d…6550backed Yes37c48$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2739…9ec5backed Yes31c47$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.43250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ccb…9458backed Yes31c46$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x466a…c0e1backed Yes32c46$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d52…1fcfbacked Yes28c45$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a74…413ebacked Yes46c43.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.791844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+80.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6d13…1e3fbacked No63c43$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe4c…d6eebacked Yes37c43$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7436…b993backed Yes43c43$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3f9…6f2bbacked No57c42$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fcc…491bbacked Yes32c41$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf43…63d3backed No61c41$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e84…0966backed No69c40$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e67…a0d2backed Yes33c38$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6297…517ebacked Yes38c37.51$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.261,64327.8%456 W · 1,187 L+117.6wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa9d5…7053backed No69c37$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58a6…d388backed No72c36$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40e1…6fe8backed No69c36$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6880…b353backed Yes43c35$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67e0…4791backed No68c34$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x848a…4bfcbacked Yes36c34$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ad6…19e3backed No61c33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bf1…0e0fbacked Yes43c32$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.122100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+89.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9212…56c9backed Yes45c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacfb…b664backed No73c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06ba…effabacked No72c29$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe16e…ee6abacked No69c29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fc7…46e9backed No57c28$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20df…65ccbacked No68c27$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.36250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick57cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1782…e56bbacked No68c27$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c35…1609backed No72c27$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1de…0509backed No63c26$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9efa…f8f2backed No55c26$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb24…e344backed No61c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd12b…19abbacked No57c25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb04…9430backed No63c22$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.86366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x155d…3b60backed No68c22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f7c…2d59backed No68c21$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6da…e977backed No72c21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf843…cf60backed No68c21$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabaa…1a97backed No73c21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18a3…a3a9backed No73c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5e4…2f83backed No73c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed No69c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.884930.6%260 W · 589 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4065…d015backed No72c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9274…f8fdbacked No73c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0672…8441backed No69c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc211…689bbacked No61c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.