Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f13faf7cea4b767f718c309e471215e2e28d6e6ca77e7d77141bde5e0274261
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,808
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,808 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cbe…9bd8backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 5c | 895.41$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…9f20backed Yes | 5c | 841.13$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.04 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f0…97bbbacked Yes | 5c | 717.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06b0…afd6backed Yes | 5c | 539.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 200.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3e…45b3backed Yes | 20c | 163$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b86…90febacked Yes | 15c | 123$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…4315backed Yes | 21c | 104$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9945…c1f9backed Yes | 19c | 94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…426abacked Yes | 19c | 84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f7…e971backed Yes | 21c | 84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fd…1049backed Yes | 26c | 83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe4…9d6bbacked Yes | 25c | 74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd691…90c3backed Yes | 30c | 73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f46…c3c0backed No | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 41c | 67.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.67 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf337…06acbacked Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff0b…d0e2backed Yes | 26c | 57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe73d…4fdabacked No | 74c | 57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c91…c59bbacked No | 79c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…e1ffbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13ff…f8afbacked No | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdb…984bbacked Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10a8…a48abacked No | 70c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed No | 49c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +25.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7165…576dbacked No | 80c | 31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…8a95backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 42c | 29.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…b207backed No | 79c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1e…fb5fbacked No | 79c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45c…3f7abacked No | 80c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe2…0899backed No | 79c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…91c9backed No | 71c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +134.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0597…97fcbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde2…952dbacked No | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d4…b20dbacked No | 74c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…158abacked No | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4840…feffbacked No | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ad…b6e9backed No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8635…3423backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4477…6887backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc621…58b9backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25d1…b474backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb824…1ce6backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7238…cc98backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…52bcbacked No | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba8…e61abacked No | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aff…5311backed No | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b75…f94dbacked No | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdb…a2b4backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 63°F or higher on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on March 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on March 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.