Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump's 538 approval rating be less than 46.5% on March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd400a9f621a3796564366ea4b4d51047d79a4c5e742e4337ec9e3eec52bbcea7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,734
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa13d…47f5backed Yes | 9c | 2,382$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Yes | 19c | 1,769$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed No | 73c | 1,080$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.4 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb799…c753backed Yes | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes | 11c | 985.89$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.26 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 8c | 824.55$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.05 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd0…796dbacked Yes | 4c | 548.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -58%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 75c | 420$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…d31fbacked Yes | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…6034backed No | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f0…97bbbacked Yes | 5c | 292.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 279.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d0…2a2abacked Yes | 27c | 248.27$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe94…7bb6backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -4.9wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6b…87e0backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 20c | 190$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…1ecebacked Yes | 13c | 135.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe7…9c6dbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fae…6378backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…e626backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13a8…c77bbacked Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdad…d8b0backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 59cpaid | +46%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 74 | 75.7%56 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe08d…d5d4backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump's 538 approval rating be less than 46.5% on March 7?this page
- Will Trump's 538 approval rating be 48.5% or higher on March 7?No won
- Will Trump's 538 approval rating be between 46.5% and 46.9% on March 7?No won
- Will Trump's 538 approval rating be between 47.0% and 47.4% on March 7?No won
- Will Trump's 538 approval rating be between 47.5% and 47.9% on March 7?Yes won
- Will Trump's 538 approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.