TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$53,946
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$55,512

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,946 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes1c18,216$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.8324710.9%27 W · 220 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick9cpaid+35.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19b8…612abacked No46c6,855$3,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,696.112638.5%10 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x037b…9f20backed Yes43c4,929$2,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,101.87447.3%35 W · 39 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed Yes30c2,618$786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785.7960235.7%215 W · 387 L+41.3wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+37.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa112…d215backed No79c2,579$2,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.041560%9 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes25c2,348$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.382506%15 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-67%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d34…7c14backed Yes56c2,079$1,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,162.261915.8%3 W · 16 L-4.2wins-0.22per pick38cpaid-75.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x652b…19c4backed No76c1,413$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.925020%10 W · 40 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-2.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…94bcbacked Yes39c819.99$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.483135.5%11 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+37.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked Yes41c793.79$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.8825947.5%123 W · 136 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes32c746$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.8849338.9%192 W · 301 L+49.3wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+51.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes30c728.2$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.0396620.7%200 W · 766 L+59.8wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+96.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa94e…c540backed Yes26c500$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+55.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd174…f2aebacked Yes27c395$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb182…005fbacked Yes52c367.22$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.7860033.8%203 W · 397 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes49c258.69$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.51,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x33bc…234ebacked Yes27c255$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.85425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x949e…3fa6backed Yes30c230$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed Yes13c230$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.97313.7%10 W · 63 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick8cpaid+81.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c15…e327backed Yes32c220$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf81e…24a8backed Yes32c215$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d61…3c32backed Yes27c201.5$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.1113224.2%32 W · 100 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid+10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No76c200$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x45a9…628fbacked Yes32c200$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe398…6437backed Yes30c195$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.5475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa877…f204backed Yes27c180.69$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9511449.1%56 W · 58 L+17.9wins+0.16per pick33cpaid+104.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x5c5e…45edbacked No19c175$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+426.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac5c…b933backed Yes27c145$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.15250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb22e…e35fbacked No68c135$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa291…d88dbacked Yes28c130$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3719126.2%50 W · 141 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca5f…1e74backed Yes54c126.9$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.5511342.5%48 W · 65 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x48ec…b68fbacked No68c105$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c2d…43f3backed No68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+36.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb251…03cebacked No70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3af4…6566backed Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x622f…e730backed No48c97.93$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.9318640.3%75 W · 111 L+20.1wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+5.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3991…33acbacked No19c95$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.95250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+163.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd535…262bbacked Yes80c95$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.73540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid+148.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b8c…a4ecbacked No70c95$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa911…9f8abacked No73c95$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.85250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-31.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bae…d5e8backed No73c95$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.85560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b83…970dbacked No73c95$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.65250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8402…bb90backed No74c95$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.74100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick65cpaid+64.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x45ba…e172backed No73c90$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe92c…47e9backed No74c90$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14c5…866bbacked No68c90$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dc8…6d54backed No68c90$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick67cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4de3…2e8ebacked No73c90$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1e2…4e21backed No74c90$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick72cpaid+40%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x608b…7598backed Yes27c85$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed No76c84.69$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.634544.4%20 W · 25 L-7.3wins-0.16per pick61cpaid-36%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x61ac…f57dbacked No70c81.37$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.174654.3%25 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61e5…7bd5backed No73c80$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69a9…e09fbacked Yes32c80$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c0…c408backed Yes30c75$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.530%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe4f7…382ebacked No70c70$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x770a…f3eabacked No70c70$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6072…fb46backed No60c70$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284445.5%20 W · 24 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b07…0390backed Yes32c70$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes27c67.2$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3732133.3%107 W · 214 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee4c…a323backed Yes32c65$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31b0…1798backed No68c65$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d8c…757abacked No74c65$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.051573.3%11 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick62cpaid+19.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b8…9104backed No68c60$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+53.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x152a…0626backed Yes32c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d5b…35e8backed Yes27c55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.85450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-26.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7f0…97bbbacked No58c54.72$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.031435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8084…5bfabacked No74c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x488b…9fdcbacked Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb399…95a8backed No73c45$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.152100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8c7…820bbacked No73c45$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6564…fef5backed Yes30c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7e6…2cc5backed Yes53c40$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1120556.1%115 W · 90 L+25.5wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+40.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd3c4…9434backed No50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2017424.1%42 W · 132 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+153.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc89…99b6backed Yes32c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4534…7f60backed No68c35$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.23100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+87.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No64c30.2$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.749,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c10…3edcbacked No73c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35ce…6ce0backed No68c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62fe…dc3bbacked No70c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e92…77d2backed No68c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+53.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4acb…9323backed No74c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-20.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7de…b98abacked No73c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.12100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick72cpaid+39.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb050…07f9backed No68c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf339…1d40backed No68c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93ad…7a9bbacked No70c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick48cpaid+353.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd682…8ff1backed No68c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.63100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+64.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x523f…ebe9backed No73c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbafc…7939backed No74c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45ed…92e6backed No70c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc455…3142backed No70c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8521…305abacked No73c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c68…34c6backed No68c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c9e…4e21backed No74c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick67cpaid+52.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3978…2f24backed No62c28.92$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.894057.5%23 W · 17 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3be7…4f2bbacked No73c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e33…3075backed No73c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3e2…91ecbacked No74c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3674…faedbacked No73c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.75366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick74cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.