Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Ajax vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0081ede51786d9369fb1a8a2c6dde9a07ecc8581be42472868c49d6d4b3a6ae8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,847
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,213
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,847 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40e3…0787backed No | 65c | 6,257$4,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,169.73 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Yes | 6c | 5,400$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +224.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa074…49c3backed Yes | 49c | 5,059$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 18c | 1,929$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 15c | 1,347$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.81 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Yes | 19c | 1,339$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.44 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked No | 72c | 1,329$957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.23 | 75 | 66.7%50 W · 25 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 56c | 1,169$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.62 | 330 | 55.2%182 W · 148 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0678…9fd0backed Yes | 27c | 999.99$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.5 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa933…6077backed Yes | 33c | 596.96$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0b…eb6dbacked Yes | 7c | 495.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 72c | 415.98$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.47 | 246 | 55.7%137 W · 109 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1e…1f0bbacked Yes | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.77 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd95…c206backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Yes | 52c | 305.71$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b51…9c96backed Yes | 28c | 285.71$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Yes | 20c | 285$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fba…bdbdbacked Yes | 39c | 210.26$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf7…6165backed Yes | 28c | 210$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe10c…819fbacked Yes | 26c | 144$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedea…740fbacked Yes | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc88e…f3e1backed Yes | 27c | 125.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02fc…0853backed Yes | 28c | 117.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf0…5c64backed No | 73c | 116.4$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed Yes | 24c | 107.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1241…c496backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f66…8938backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…28b8backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x732b…85f4backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea4…4bf3backed Yes | 20c | 85.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecc…6ff4backed Yes | 26c | 82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f0…97bbbacked Yes | 25c | 80.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked No | 72c | 71.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 69cpaid | +31%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbc…176bbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5de…8ed4backed Yes | 28c | 71.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +86%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36ce…a6f6backed Yes | 26c | 69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c55…029dbacked Yes | 27c | 63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…8585backed Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf60f…7197backed No | 74c | 59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee6…eb9bbacked No | 74c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd14f…186ebacked No | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860e…2cc2backed Yes | 27c | 54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfef…4811backed Yes | 26c | 51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b7…bde1backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc225…2633backed Yes | 26c | 49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…8ec4backed Yes | 26c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x136a…b55cbacked No | 74c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7218…24debacked No | 74c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 73c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 95 | 61.1%58 W · 37 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfafd…9de3backed No | 73c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x442e…b930backed No | 74c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9945…c1f9backed No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0e…4dc6backed No | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa541…8a0dbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80fa…e69dbacked No | 74c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb71e…fa19backed No | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 56 | 76.8%43 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf75…8430backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9649…64c0backed No | 73c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb1…be3abacked No | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe323…9d7ebacked No | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d9…8d56backed No | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0102…3d1ebacked No | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f0…fa29backed No | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc92f…88c6backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed89…c2babacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 59cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 71c | 18.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52cf…86f5backed No | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…ad6dbacked No | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…cbe9backed No | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ajax vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw?this page
- Will Ajax win on 2025-03-06?No won
- Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-03-06?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.