Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump sign Bitcoin reserve executive order Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31297543d630cf017639acba79fa693f3c9d436e576e8be7de2fbf9e0044882a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $166,187
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $165,225
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $166,187 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 14,116$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.82 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 0c | 10,823$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 98 | 10.2%10 W · 88 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 39c | 8,829$3,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,432.54 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 8,385$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.48 | 129 | 10.9%14 W · 115 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed No | 42c | 7,327$3,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,256.12 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 58c | 6,976$4,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,035.53 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeca9…0403backed Yes | 0c | 2,805$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 73c | 2,666$1,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e52…415cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,525$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10c3…db1dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 3c | 2,468$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6130…144abacked Yes | 3c | 1,606$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed No | 57c | 1,555$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.65 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 30c | 1,486$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.74 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 13c | 1,350$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 2c | 1,341$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 3c | 1,165$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c6…1e44backed Yes | 2c | 1,140$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ba…5933backed Yes | 2c | 1,122$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 5c | 1,121$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.67 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…e7eebacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 10c | 999.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +11.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x711e…2091backed Yes | 2c | 866.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…3600backed Yes | 4c | 795$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90eb…f9dbbacked Yes | 6c | 618.73$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 74 | 73%54 W · 20 L | +12.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd89b…7945backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c2…4c90backed Yes | 21c | 481.56$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b88…d628backed No | 45c | 465$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.5 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 40c | 450$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.25 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…d0dcbacked Yes | 4c | 441.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8f…f9e9backed Yes | 9c | 437.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97f7…c4d2backed Yes | 5c | 400.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 13c | 400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 135 | 25.9%35 W · 100 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed No | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed No | 41c | 299.99$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked Yes | 27c | 275$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.55 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef1…4eecbacked Yes | 5c | 238.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e50…ee70backed Yes | 59c | 134.28$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 10c | 120.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x547e…6bcebacked Yes | 17c | 105.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 50c | 100.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…ab69backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed Yes | 60c | 81.89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed Yes | 22c | 66.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…12f6backed Yes | 26c | 51.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f0…97bbbacked No | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…1643backed Yes | 30c | 39.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…8ef9backed No | 40c | 39.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf218…37a7backed Yes | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf145…012abacked Yes | 59c | 33.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 68c | 31.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 74 | 75.7%56 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked No | 78c | 25.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 148 | 43.2%64 W · 84 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 71c | 20.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.