Us Politics · resolved market
US military action against Iran before April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf25a5f924fe89fa730a6e57eed798989eabaaa07958ef54ceef839a08116be82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $147,965
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $145,892
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $147,965 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 4c | 12,000$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.86 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +110.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf05…70dabacked Yes | 3c | 7,490$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb75d…349abacked Yes | 2c | 6,495$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 2c | 5,931$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.99 | 88 | 20.5%18 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes | 4c | 4,999$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f7…071cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,547$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5221…5b77backed Yes | 5c | 3,645$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6734…fd07backed Yes | 4c | 2,999$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked Yes | 2c | 2,786$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.35 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c1…0193backed Yes | 5c | 2,690$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.45per pick | 41cpaid | +253.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x277b…31fabacked Yes | 4c | 1,713$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.37 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +217.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 7c | 1,699$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.9 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2964…ea1ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,560$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 14cpaid | +593.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x653d…7805backed Yes | 4c | 1,385$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…6a5dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,375$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 4c | 1,262$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.93 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -84%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 4c | 1,246$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.93 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1c…5d20backed Yes | 3c | 1,168$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +101.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 9c | 1,148$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.77 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x246b…7b7bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,054$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf18…aba4backed Yes | 3c | 1,002$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f6…fbacbacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 22cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…8845backed Yes | 2c | 987.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f0…97bbbacked Yes | 7c | 593.95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf05…4a54backed Yes | 5c | 591.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 10c | 540$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.65 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b1…5037backed Yes | 6c | 528.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d96…78afbacked Yes | 7c | 511.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…a4a0backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 482.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 8c | 462$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…d8a3backed Yes | 3c | 428.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a0…4e12backed Yes | 4c | 360.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2537…e959backed Yes | 6c | 338.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3b…f573backed Yes | 8c | 320$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c83…8a22backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c5…cba8backed Yes | 5c | 296.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x859e…df37backed Yes | 12c | 280.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Yes | 5c | 279.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 269.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 141 | 25.5%36 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 6c | 249.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d2…8f47backed Yes | 5c | 237.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e6…819fbacked Yes | 4c | 222.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.21per pick | 33cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b66…002bbacked Yes | 6c | 215$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Yes | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79e7…f41fbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…5b09backed Yes | 9c | 167.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 10c | 134$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.