TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump reduce majority of tariffs before July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$99,122
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$106,596

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,122 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x022e…2a77backed Yes56c10,959$6,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,853.59549.5%47 W · 48 L+9.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No56c10,176$5,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,690.828450%42 W · 42 L-9.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-26.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa84b…5055backed No47c4,763$2,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,222.72875%6 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x551e…b0e0backed No44c4,659$2,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,030.124744.7%21 W · 26 L+6.0wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+52.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked No43c3,990$1,719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,718.6411336.3%41 W · 72 L-8.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No46c2,696$1,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,237.337533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8225…c4a8backed Yes57c2,179$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$928.751154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick40cpaid-1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x06e1…d431backed No42c2,000$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8402138.1%8 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e1f…c855backed No47c2,000$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$939.992133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9b9…c2b6backed No42c1,950$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.580%0 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes46c1,772$816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$955.764259.5%25 W · 17 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+28.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No58c1,600$923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923.1969634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x416e…64a8backed Yes52c1,539$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744.45955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3303…b5e3backed No48c1,422$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.79955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick44cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked No25c1,344$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.477045.7%32 W · 38 L+7.5wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+66.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1d37…f4a4backed No7c1,229$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.38828.5%7 W · 75 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Yes44c1,201$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3418…a3f2backed Yes39c1,120$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.57850%4 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+76.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No15c1,072$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.4411121.6%24 W · 87 L+11.4wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+179.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes43c1,002$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575.867638.2%29 W · 47 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-29%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa822…64e6backed No5c1,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed No3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa1…636cbacked Yes55c920$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4141100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes53c913.27$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.5437844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed Yes29c872$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.125240.4%21 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes54c800$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3654928.6%14 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ced…12b2backed No68c785.21$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.942035%7 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-45.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked Yes29c740$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.211031.8%35 W · 75 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No7c721.98$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.031,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a49…3ceebacked Yes49c721.04$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.06875%6 W · 2 L+3.3wins+0.41per pick34cpaid+131.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe3ee…373ebacked Yes51c538.93$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.472544%11 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fd9…0145backed No55c521.42$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28730%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd572…7bdabacked No15c520$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.4742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ab5…ba4abacked Yes47c518.51$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.81683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick57cpaid+38.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed No33c510$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.613525.9%35 W · 100 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-37.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc2e…2358backed Yes52c500$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0deb…9b0fbacked Yes56c500$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2201145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-23.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes61c497.59$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.11,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x52cc…4021backed Yes54c462.96$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No51c443.63$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.1199629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed No51c417.19$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.772245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6faf…6021backed No49c411.47$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c0d…0048backed No6c400$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2480%0 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No33c370$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.2737740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No69c368.55$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.1615646.8%73 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc813…44dabacked Yes56c352.73$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.561540%6 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4427…498dbacked No54c350$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick60cpaid-60.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5b58…eba2backed Yes54c345.46$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.91475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+35.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6fd…658cbacked No62c322.03$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004332.6%14 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb01d…6866backed Yes50c317.1$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.11241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb34…2423backed No49c307.18$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.522744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-26.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed No4c305.44$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.32154.2%9 W · 206 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked No34c300$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10110035%35 W · 65 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes57c299.99$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13018033.3%60 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x377e…a9d3backed No45c266.67$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid+4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed Yes71c264$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.345642.9%24 W · 32 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe164…e1b9backed No4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf7e…d472backed Yes79c245$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.351172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+30.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x50b2…c94abacked Yes38c245$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.0512736.2%46 W · 81 L-17.3wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-34.7%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x4d13…a018backed No51c222$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.222339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-32.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9308…e2f5backed No51c220$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1122035%7 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7681…6439backed No48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6447…69b7backed Yes55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+61.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x68d9…00edbacked No56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1124351.2%22 W · 21 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa2f0…9941backed Yes50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+72%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$908444%37 W · 47 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed No6c199.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113020%6 W · 24 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-52%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcfb5…7d2dbacked Yes51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.084047.5%19 W · 21 L-4.3wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-28.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2f2d…b371backed No6c182.02$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1180%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35e8…8f71backed Yes55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.822100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+110%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No54c180.2$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.3156733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x27e4…7ef1backed Yes56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.572100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+74%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe219…2fdfbacked No45c177.78$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x91c6…281ebacked Yes52c170.8$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.672673.1%19 W · 7 L+4.7wins+0.18per pick55cpaid+25.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc9df…d8bcbacked Yes59c169.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.493030%9 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-47.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x80da…4f6dbacked No62c150$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.319436.1%70 W · 124 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x169b…30c9backed No40c150$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.53066.7%20 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+25.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd74d…85e9backed No71c140$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.41625%4 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick31cpaid+16.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes39c131.82$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.4117850%89 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x09cd…8be5backed No43c126.68$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.04333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb553…88cebacked Yes45c111.11$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.111127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-24.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48d3…30babacked No56c110$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.67943%34 W · 45 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-24.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2277…8145backed No48c104.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick45cpaid-79.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed No58c103.89$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.269546.3%44 W · 51 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x415c…3c94backed Yes53c101$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.478529.4%25 W · 60 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e72…9938backed Yes57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-35.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x635d…5025backed Yes53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476349.2%31 W · 32 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x91fb…2771backed No75c100$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.272147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+34.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6ad…959cbacked Yes27c100$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.6wins+0.26per pick46cpaid+80.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcb11…0d5ebacked No45c99.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452755.6%15 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+34.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No47c98.79$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5296319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b4e…7168backed No51c98.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No22c97$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2244111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked No46c93.36$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7511612.9%15 W · 101 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-59.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x75b9…f7a6backed No22c90$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.51030%3 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba3b…eea1backed Yes57c87.72$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.72633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf68…4967backed Yes45c84.44$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.441450%7 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes39c77.48$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.228419%16 W · 68 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-35.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8928…dcc9backed Yes53c75.47$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.47633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf2…9adabacked Yes40c75$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.