AI · resolved market
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cf72c4a1d4cfeea82b203ba7273ce6d0268f3c29b66a840b14dc822ece92756
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $190,813
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $167,323
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $190,813 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 7,685$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.71 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb6…5dd7backed Yes | 1c | 5,379$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad7…0971backed Yes | 0c | 5,275$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…1829backed Yes | 1c | 4,903$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…7937backed Yes | 4c | 4,792$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db0…95d3backed Yes | 1c | 4,085$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8c…73debacked Yes | 1c | 3,837$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,327$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d59…b22cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5431…2171backed Yes | 2c | 2,350$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fab…bbaebacked Yes | 1c | 1,685$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb715…f68abacked Yes | 7c | 1,329$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,320$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64df…b618backed Yes | 1c | 1,293$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 12c | 1,006$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.98 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6d…b3febacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 4.7%2 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…5fc1backed Yes | 9c | 839.07$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x377e…a9d3backed Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…9a71backed Yes | 10c | 701$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9f…de68backed Yes | 2c | 625$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebc…a981backed Yes | 11c | 443.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d4…59d6backed Yes | 5c | 406.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x363c…d885backed Yes | 13c | 385.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9e…49b3backed Yes | 13c | 332$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3039…8a62backed Yes | 3c | 330.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 12c | 318.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d74…06d9backed Yes | 10c | 205.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc79e…eac5backed Yes | 10c | 204.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf29c…a8a3backed Yes | 5c | 204.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59d6…62c8backed Yes | 10c | 190.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…bf70backed Yes | 10c | 188.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd8…8c69backed Yes | 11c | 177.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked Yes | 15c | 174.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53d2…0c3fbacked Yes | 10c | 165$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf15…b1eabacked Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac61…f5f7backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb782…955cbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…4db3backed Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2b…c35dbacked Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 41c | 59.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tim Cook out as Apple CEO in 2025?this page
- Andy Jassy out as Amazon CEO in 2025?No won
- Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO in 2025?No won
- Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO in 2025?No won
- Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.