AI · resolved market
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2573b652eb48365d20cd4396072e0e71b5401ed8ae2866a02b80dbc690fe9063
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $134,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $114,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc570…c2a0backed Yes | 16c | 4,900$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 4,771$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 18c | 4,290$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.31 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf795…5ebdbacked Yes | 2c | 4,158$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 17c | 3,672$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.09 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d59…b22cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,236$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed Yes | 22c | 3,102$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.47 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Yes | 11c | 2,872$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbb…76f1backed Yes | 12c | 2,817$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbec7…6cfdbacked Yes | 10c | 2,294$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.63 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 4c | 2,059$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.64 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -79%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8644…3904backed Yes | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 1c | 1,836$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 21c | 1,486$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.08 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 1c | 1,313$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91a1…c1a2backed Yes | 2c | 1,274$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bf…8ecebacked Yes | 8c | 1,251$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.09 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,071$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.33 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 11c | 937.6$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.33 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21fe…da90backed Yes | 3c | 905$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e30…ef89backed Yes | 17c | 892.55$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 3c | 853$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6d…b3febacked Yes | 1c | 834$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 43 | 4.7%2 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e1…0590backed Yes | 3c | 790$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 778.08$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.65 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f62…38fcbacked Yes | 13c | 575$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…25b5backed Yes | 2c | 555$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8f…5c18backed Yes | 2c | 545.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6816…b693backed No | 79c | 528$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.88 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 9c | 518.56$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 12c | 431.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9aa…e347backed Yes | 9c | 425$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e6b…a799backed No | 80c | 370$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb482…df20backed Yes | 22c | 350$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9e…49b3backed Yes | 14c | 315.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.78 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…2e8cbacked Yes | 8c | 312$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 21cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa228…fbbfbacked Yes | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…edc9backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77e2…5148backed Yes | 7c | 281.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 56c | 279.54$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +6.1wins | +0.36per pick | 41cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ca…3c09backed Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd998…7506backed Yes | 19c | 222.9$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…6d3fbacked Yes | 24c | 217$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed No | 76c | 200$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 79c | 188.01$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 9c | 182.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -71%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 25c | 165$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffb5…7742backed Yes | 19c | 161.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c85…9c78backed Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 23c | 150$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 11c | 135.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa22d…ea45backed Yes | 16c | 130$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -77%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x771a…096fbacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c1…0eb3backed Yes | 9c | 123.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3418…a3f2backed Yes | 11c | 121.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 118$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x70a8…9105backed Yes | 27c | 117$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 18c | 116.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b5…4174backed Yes | 19c | 111.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4057…71babacked Yes | 19c | 111.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68e1…e78bbacked Yes | 19c | 107.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53d2…0c3fbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5406…0a7fbacked Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b70…cac2backed Yes | 19c | 80.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8f…f9e9backed Yes | 16c | 79.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 68c | 72.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d83…0bb9backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7008…266bbacked Yes | 20c | 53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 21c | 52.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e2…5009backed No | 79c | 47.62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac70…dfb1backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO in 2025?this page
- Andy Jassy out as Amazon CEO in 2025?No won
- Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO in 2025?No won
- Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO in 2025?No won
- Tim Cook out as Apple CEO in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.