AI · resolved market
Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5396b8d8684be34106d15979bda35c6b3023f46e8d6957e93641f379268e0f5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,631
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,223
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,631 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc094…97a1backed Yes | 8c | 3,322$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.77 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -57%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 1c | 1,450$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb678…f74dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,356$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes | 10c | 1,100$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1be8…53b2backed Yes | 3c | 956.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 15c | 793.9$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.05 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 720.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 14c | 652.38$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.33 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8341…de89backed Yes | 15c | 625.31$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.8 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 575.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4927…3a5ebacked Yes | 6c | 531.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…2307backed Yes | 13c | 511.61$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…9598backed Yes | 20c | 491.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 17c | 345$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 70c | 307$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.02 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed Yes | 13c | 270$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Yes | 14c | 228.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…e93fbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x930b…ea62backed Yes | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…b4ecbacked Yes | 12c | 175$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77e2…5148backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6183…3834backed No | 79c | 145.45$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed No | 79c | 143$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +5.1wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…935cbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba3c…2e4ebacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…6f77backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf856…a704backed Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…39cfbacked Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…9f94backed Yes | 22c | 91.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a3…88d0backed Yes | 16c | 83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 16c | 70.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d2…a0e2backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0487…d452backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e43…2578backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 40c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO in 2025?this page
- Andy Jassy out as Amazon CEO in 2025?No won
- Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO in 2025?No won
- Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO in 2025?No won
- Tim Cook out as Apple CEO in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.