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Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump acquire Greenland before July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,723,848
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,254,548

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,723,848 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 221 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x562a…3d9cbacked Yes6c117,546$7,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,231.651711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick27cpaid-62.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9e38…61b5backed Yes4c99,367$3,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,874.191625%4 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b3b…2a4ebacked Yes5c98,529$4,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,90010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02cf…76c8backed Yes5c95,658$5,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,093.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb35b…fc08backed Yes6c86,589$5,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,578.642626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-58%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd4b…75eabacked Yes7c55,429$3,629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,629.08911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-84.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1da…8f6abacked Yes8c48,892$4,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,088.861145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes2c43,679$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.6211419.3%22 W · 92 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c42,914$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.49580%0 W · 58 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefc6…c974backed Yes5c41,838$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,200933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-30.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb052…ff06backed Yes1c33,349$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.881315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid-36.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c4c…cb39backed Yes5c32,197$1,732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,732.04540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick22cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes7c31,820$2,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,263.9637533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8890…79bdbacked Yes4c30,000$1,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2023727%10 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf74d…557cbacked Yes3c28,893$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7aa…d0f0backed Yes6c25,061$1,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,408.483228.1%9 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44c1…5f7bbacked Yes6c25,000$1,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,580.590%0 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc1f2…bbc2backed Yes3c21,403$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe1e7…5fb6backed Yes7c20,000$1,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,328.942245.5%10 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick35cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f29…33ccbacked Yes6c19,982$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,220.451618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-55.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfaf…4513backed Yes3c18,788$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf817…d678backed Yes7c18,300$1,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,212.03812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-79.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes2c17,988$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.24727.7%13 W · 34 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff9e…5b71backed Yes6c17,790$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dfc…dc4dbacked Yes3c14,706$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9be…fe74backed Yes5c14,586$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721.1250%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd535…fa67backed Yes3c14,424$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.024630.4%14 W · 32 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-49.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f8c…92e8backed Yes3c13,740$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x035d…5a61backed Yes8c13,085$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-47.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04fa…6c06backed Yes5c12,669$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.341020%2 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8948…28d5backed Yes7c11,759$846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$846.42137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-78.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes6c10,728$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.873859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes2c10,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20069634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x71e5…50a4backed Yes6c9,776$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.86812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick6cpaid-32.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4150…3ee7backed Yes7c7,572$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dfb…6770backed Yes6c7,069$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes4c7,000$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.22847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfef5…dbe2backed Yes7c6,944$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x705a…9d48backed Yes6c6,661$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b64…49bdbacked Yes6c6,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3807254.2%39 W · 33 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+17.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes6c5,835$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3508643%37 W · 49 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb293…6d52backed Yes3c5,323$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.693135.5%11 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-29.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes1c5,191$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.33626.5%4 W · 58 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-60.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcbda…2687backed Yes4c5,067$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21060%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd39b…9343backed Yes3c5,021$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.611020%2 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-62.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5843…1e89backed Yes7c5,000$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.86425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-49.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed Yes8c5,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38015238.8%59 W · 93 L-13.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x11eb…319dbacked Yes6c4,603$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18c6…e7cabacked Yes3c4,385$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11440%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71b8…d19dbacked Yes7c4,306$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.3333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-42.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49f3…adb4backed Yes7c4,257$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x219f…1113backed Yes3c4,211$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12640%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f42…0f91backed Yes3c4,139$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7dc…ed2dbacked Yes4c4,116$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x437c…2370backed Yes1c3,914$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes2c3,758$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.0615332.7%50 W · 103 L-0.6wins0.00per pick33cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8db7…dcedbacked Yes4c3,705$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.2130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x906b…fd3cbacked Yes6c3,700$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.41650%8 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes5c3,630$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.29810.2%10 W · 88 L-5.9wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-60.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xab33…7d21backed Yes2c3,500$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes6c3,462$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.5117021.2%36 W · 134 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc91…b610backed Yes6c3,433$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c3,398$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.54490%0 W · 49 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1e6…b1afbacked Yes1c3,348$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.04254%1 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick7cpaid+54.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x128e…a35bbacked Yes5c3,148$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c3,015$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.632400%0 W · 240 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Yes2c2,811$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.239546.3%44 W · 51 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d45…b661backed Yes5c2,785$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.26234.3%1 W · 22 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-68.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4059…23dabacked Yes6c2,611$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.8350%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x771d…e0ebbacked Yes4c2,564$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001050%5 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes6c2,525$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.334323.3%10 W · 33 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-31.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a8a…c16ebacked Yes7c2,513$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.24520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-72.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4485…6d42backed Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1060%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x377e…a9d3backed Yes3c2,292$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid+4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1316…c716backed Yes5c2,242$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.621822.2%4 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick12cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a9d…446dbacked Yes6c2,232$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.544820.8%10 W · 38 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-25.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2fe5…4e08backed Yes1c2,198$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.99329.4%3 W · 29 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick14cpaid+65.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes3c2,189$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.4455618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb46d…7093backed Yes1c2,163$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.425616.1%9 W · 47 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick17cpaid+20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22aa…0caebacked Yes7c2,083$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.0470%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x547b…014cbacked Yes3c2,043$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.121323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-62.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa075…7d2bbacked Yes6c2,000$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1112634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d8c…726cbacked Yes3c2,000$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c2,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1112910.9%14 W · 115 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-44.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ea5…6548backed Yes1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes6c2,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1208615.1%13 W · 73 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-39.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0004…ef4cbacked Yes5c2,000$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104140%0 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x60eb…a6d8backed Yes5c1,951$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.552119%4 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0d6…3e79backed Yes8c1,825$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.36425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-62.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2e6…5b0abacked Yes5c1,820$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x029e…e4e8backed Yes6c1,805$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick30cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes5c1,794$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.616943.2%73 W · 96 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd17c…d635backed Yes1c1,737$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes2c1,624$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3524035.4%85 W · 155 L-12.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-30.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed Yes2c1,500$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310211.8%12 W · 90 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-72.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2964…ea1ebacked Yes5c1,500$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.951330.8%4 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick14cpaid+593.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6fba…bdbdbacked Yes7c1,482$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.71241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-35.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e46…8f87backed Yes7c1,471$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd13…a813backed Yes7c1,449$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-73.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9706…13b9backed Yes5c1,435$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.81527.7%4 W · 48 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-81.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.