Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfec73fdfca14050f2e500a837aa99547bc6eb5175680da67d565a88af812eaf4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $254,973
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $245,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $254,973 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 284 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2864…8527backed No | 0c | 24,983$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc794…d09cbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 39c | 6,235$2,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,431.52 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x126f…eeaabacked Yes | 74c | 5,854$4,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,544.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec0b…69e6backed Yes | 75c | 5,745$4,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,445.46 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe11a…e5b6backed No | 1c | 5,144$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 4,964$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.47 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed No | 40c | 4,932$1,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,959.15 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked No | 28c | 4,856$1,341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,340.96 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed No | 17c | 4,722$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.31 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes | 65c | 4,225$2,761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,463.4 | 125 | 25.6%32 W · 93 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 68c | 3,695$2,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,196.34 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6df…65b1backed No | 1c | 3,445$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba0…97bfbacked Yes | 59c | 3,273$1,946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,326.96 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf9…2059backed No | 1c | 2,982$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed Yes | 58c | 2,861$1,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,192.21 | 143 | 35%50 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed No | 4c | 2,857$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.24per pick | 7cpaid | +413.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 11c | 2,705$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.52 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 11c | 2,579$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.35 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…da5dbacked No | 1c | 2,500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5185…79e6backed No | 13c | 2,434$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x101e…dcc1backed No | 2c | 2,212$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed No | 61c | 2,000$1,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,218.3 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbd…21d2backed No | 1c | 2,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 69 | 8.7%6 W · 63 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8acf…22e4backed No | 51c | 1,979$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1adb…5e2dbacked No | 33c | 1,972$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.7 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…fb0cbacked No | 1c | 1,842$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 39c | 1,818$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,115.19 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed No | 7c | 1,751$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.73 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 67c | 1,739$1,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,172.53 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6013…d915backed No | 60c | 1,635$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c3…36eebacked No | 62c | 1,600$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.73 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 56c | 1,576$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.17 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…37a7backed No | 2c | 1,565$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…72bebacked No | 55c | 1,453$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 11c | 1,440$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.84 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +7.6wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +151%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6878…bec2backed No | 37c | 1,359$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286b…eac9backed No | 36c | 1,339$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76be…6718backed No | 59c | 1,239$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.1 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34c3…aa41backed No | 17c | 1,151$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 14c | 1,150$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.85 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +8.6wins | +0.16per pick | 14cpaid | +154.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1884…bbb8backed No | 77c | 1,138$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 15c | 1,107$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.72 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 14c | 1,059$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.45 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf31c…aec8backed No | 2c | 1,043$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 16c | 984.03$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e5…cb25backed No | 2c | 931.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfed0…6625backed No | 2c | 891.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 2cpaid | +6,150%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 7c | 867.41$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.72 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e5…5bb5backed No | 12c | 827.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.03 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 42c | 811.96$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.84 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed No | 30c | 811.64$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.25 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 31c | 754.05$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.22 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf748…77dbbacked No | 29c | 726.14$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.23 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 63c | 707.62$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.62 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed No | 11c | 700$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.9 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 55c | 689.97$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.09 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked No | 15c | 663$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.11 | 76 | 32.9%25 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a21…2891backed No | 3c | 609.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab71…be8cbacked Yes | 78c | 603.5$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…2da3backed No | 42c | 599.97$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 32c | 585.28$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.36 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed No | 3c | 570.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 130 | 33.1%43 W · 87 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe79c…c715backed Yes | 53c | 569.21$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.21 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d51…6f1fbacked No | 26c | 530.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.47 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 5c | 521.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…fb82backed No | 3c | 520.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 6c | 500$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x20df…c787backed No | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a4…b60cbacked Yes | 55c | 494.25$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…6d7fbacked No | 3c | 479.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8a…eecdbacked No | 37c | 470$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59e4…c67bbacked No | 17c | 466.22$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.75 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked No | 17c | 443.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.92 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…7aafbacked No | 32c | 426.11$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.75 | 94 | 10.6%10 W · 84 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62c4…1478backed Yes | 59c | 407.5$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 79c | 406$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.18 | 195 | 34.4%67 W · 128 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d88…b0c4backed No | 52c | 383.35$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0a…5f58backed No | 48c | 370.63$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.16 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed No | 18c | 368.86$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.42 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41a1…fb64backed No | 67c | 362.26$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 70c | 357.82$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.98 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e60…3736backed No | 28c | 355.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +1,042.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e1…ab0fbacked No | 70c | 349.99$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed No | 6c | 336.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 42c | 333$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.47 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked No | 44c | 332.99$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.52 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe597…4118backed No | 50c | 332.99$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x366c…8184backed Yes | 72c | 332.68$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ef…5ea3backed Yes | 65c | 329.63$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.63 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…2697backed No | 31c | 322.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…508abacked No | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c88…383abacked Yes | 46c | 312$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.49 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bc…fa0fbacked No | 5c | 310.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd11e…699fbacked No | 41c | 305.42$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +78%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d6c…c1ecbacked No | 36c | 303.22$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72cb…542ebacked No | 67c | 280$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed No | 39c | 273.61$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.4 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ab…c71bbacked Yes | 73c | 272.36$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.79 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed No | 66c | 269.99$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.01 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 9?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.