Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP dip to $2.00 January 12-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26d876f1f37c5930239d5344704ad71ee6b69c36a45708c7536c5bbd36f61dde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $208,456
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $214,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $208,456 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6af5…42cebacked Yes | 19c | 35,582$6,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,984.85 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +5.6wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…0b43backed Yes | 23c | 20,249$4,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,550.33 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 16c | 10,835$1,757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,077.91 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a9…6571backed No | 1c | 7,321$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a21…ac9cbacked No | 51c | 7,098$3,618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,618.24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 3,069$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf632…02aabacked Yes | 4c | 1,678$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,616.04 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad1e…d71ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,225$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,115.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +178.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 18c | 864.05$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.77 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6b…916ebacked Yes | 29c | 708.75$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +240.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked No | 21c | 600$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 112 | 65.2%73 W · 39 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 22c | 487.75$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.17 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 9c | 310$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.6 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97a7…7629backed Yes | 27c | 307.93$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +275.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb287…e7cebacked No | 73c | 307.93$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 20c | 283.56$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.54 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.22per pick | 22cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f20…bc02backed Yes | 22c | 274.46$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +350.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…5114backed No | 78c | 274.46$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed Yes | 22c | 267.04$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.71 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ed…10b4backed No | 28c | 265.97$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.15 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x915d…840dbacked Yes | 5c | 261$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +1,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…6e36backed Yes | 5c | 252.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +1,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fd…3558backed Yes | 5c | 251.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +2,073.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd44f…0674backed Yes | 5c | 245.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +1,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11b4…a7cebacked Yes | 5c | 239.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +1,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0649…7914backed Yes | 5c | 238.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +1,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5e…4f01backed Yes | 5c | 235.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +1,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c64…9311backed Yes | 5c | 232.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +1,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b5…fd66backed Yes | 5c | 227.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +1,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e1…e083backed No | 71c | 216$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 37cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x989c…69f4backed No | 79c | 209.59$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.56 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -18.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x50ec…aa43backed Yes | 8c | 169.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +214%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcb…11b0backed Yes | 26c | 153.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +211.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6136…30f3backed No | 78c | 150.86$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3d…2ecfbacked Yes | 22c | 149.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +362.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc61a…9de3backed No | 77c | 145.06$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…eeb8backed Yes | 23c | 145.06$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +332.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9540…3ebbbacked Yes | 35c | 141.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +183.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked Yes | 17c | 130.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.88 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 28c | 117.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.03 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5490…1806backed Yes | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1d…b628backed No | 50c | 104.92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 66c | 90.28$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -8.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c4…909dbacked No | 67c | 59.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5650…bf37backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31de…03ffbacked Yes | 34c | 35.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9611…ab76backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5552…d1c2backed Yes | 78c | 17.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +1,032%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP dip to $2.00 January 12-18?this page
- Will XRP dip to $1.50 January 12-18?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.60 January 12-18?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.80 January 12-18?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.90 January 12-18?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.20 January 12-18?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.30 January 12-18?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.40 January 12-18?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.50 January 12-18?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.60 January 12-18?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.70 January 12-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.