Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP reach $2.20 January 12-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae649ee8a2daa7dd3689093a30ed3b2465c4386846381fd0a5db207b2ef282a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,339
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,518
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,339 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef10…0b43backed Yes | 27c | 13,885$3,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,710.41 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed No | 53c | 4,128$2,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,956.38 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc10b…c27ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,734$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.67 | 70 | 2.9%2 W · 68 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60c1…01ccbacked Yes | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…6865backed No | 74c | 527.01$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 17c | 430.44$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.92 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 407$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e4…29debacked Yes | 3c | 336.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 294.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x695d…72d3backed No | 54c | 179.54$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.78 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +99.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd7…b90fbacked Yes | 65c | 160$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf632…02aabacked Yes | 12c | 110$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked No | 18c | 81.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ed…10b4backed No | 55c | 69.44$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07e3…2899backed No | 15c | 69.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.99 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed Yes | 61c | 66.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31de…03ffbacked No | 27c | 59.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.1 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f69…fdfbbacked No | 69c | 46.38$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9548…1002backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP reach $2.20 January 12-18?this page
- Will XRP dip to $1.50 January 12-18?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.60 January 12-18?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.80 January 12-18?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.90 January 12-18?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.00 January 12-18?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.30 January 12-18?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.40 January 12-18?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.50 January 12-18?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.60 January 12-18?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.70 January 12-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.