TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$92,778
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$93,153

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,778 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc4e3…4cc6backed Yes0c18,620$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.621435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x979c…47dbbacked Yes1c6,396$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec3a…a709backed No56c2,249$1,254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$995.525451.9%28 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb1e…66f1backed Yes1c2,029$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151020%2 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-66%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x584e…090fbacked Yes19c1,961$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.6247834.3%164 W · 314 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ed6…d123backed Yes2c1,897$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.93250%1 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick2cpaid+2,400%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0c8…c312backed Yes1c1,059$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d1…6f1abacked Yes2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32d5…59cebacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick1cpaid+3,233.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No63c976.41$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.047244.4%32 W · 40 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ed7…07e7backed Yes58c647.83$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e4f…d890backed No68c582.57$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.574325.6%11 W · 32 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes19c539.1$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.4356424.5%138 W · 426 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes31c520.16$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.6983332.1%267 W · 566 L+24.4wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes45c520.02$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.5120631.6%65 W · 141 L-23.6wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-38.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa629…fe39backed Yes8c511.35$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.845446.3%25 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+60.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x88fb…e517backed Yes44c465.87$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.15250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes14c450.66$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.3818727.3%51 W · 136 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x389a…cf3dbacked Yes9c445.72$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1113223.5%31 W · 101 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-25.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No79c436.81$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.742,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa462…0fb2backed Yes45c432.83$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.0411920.2%24 W · 95 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+28.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes34c409.97$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.4839541.3%163 W · 232 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c6d…1358backed No78c287.47$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.313435.3%12 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes30c260.3$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.461,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No71c251.81$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.0112251.6%63 W · 59 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc11e…75c8backed Yes8c239.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.38623.3%20 W · 66 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+47.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b28…d021backed No51c226.19$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.5128718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes28c221$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.935232.7%115 W · 237 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+40.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbe9d…11a8backed Yes66c219.43$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.65333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-50.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb63b…4e0fbacked Yes28c217.73$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-52.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc0c…43aabacked Yes31c214.84$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.271533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c87…3b59backed Yes38c211.44$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xff18…da47backed Yes28c199.99$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5726434.1%90 W · 174 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9469…6d18backed No30c199.98$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.9995942.4%407 W · 552 L+84.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb009…b498backed Yes12c195.01$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246139.3%24 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes18c187.16$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.651,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x588e…5a21backed Yes40c182.02$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.761643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb79…9822backed Yes63c180.7$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.73450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a12…0a16backed No69c173.29$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.532100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b19…6b1cbacked Yes24c172.06$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.478348.2%40 W · 43 L+7.6wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+4.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x70f1…c8cebacked Yes65c171.59$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.031513.3%2 W · 13 L-4.2wins-0.28per pick41cpaid-80.6%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes27c163.96$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1216465.2%107 W · 57 L+18.9wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+27.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes11c161.87$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1754037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6916…b44bbacked Yes70c161.49$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.251822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-46.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes21c156.57$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.621,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bad…b337backed Yes9c155$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.432310.5%34 W · 289 L+15.6wins+0.05per pick6cpaid+54.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf91d…d7cebacked No45c151.37$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.7626339.9%105 W · 158 L+17.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No37c149.89$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.781,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x195e…5b32backed Yes11c140.88$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.855016%8 W · 42 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-49.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9349…0486backed Yes66c138.88$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick73cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f5c…f3d3backed Yes41c124.85$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d0f…72ddbacked Yes11c120$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b0d…c219backed Yes14c120$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.62812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick31cpaid-77.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd8f8…0f11backed No29c110.53$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.6396620.7%200 W · 766 L+59.8wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+96.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf007…1829backed Yes29c105$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.893647.2%17 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa719…c7b0backed Yes23c101.47$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-24.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0f7…eac7backed Yes70c100$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe838…3832backed Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x399d…6e96backed Yes20c97.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f70…088dbacked Yes13c95.41$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.821625%4 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-61.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6644…5b8fbacked No69c93.61$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.174100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No75c93.14$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0784759.4%503 W · 344 L+41.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes20c90.31$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes79c88.78$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.415752.2%82 W · 75 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc863…eb87backed Yes14c86.6$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b03…1f22backed Yes27c83.83$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd734…b12cbacked Yes16c77.08$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec7c…7ad4backed No74c70.01$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5419037.4%71 W · 119 L-0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe62e…917cbacked Yes38c65.96$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8415558.7%91 W · 64 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes37c65.45$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xb387…775cbacked Yes42c65.01$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.521241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-32.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe658…488bbacked Yes39c64.2$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+34.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c54…5bc7backed Yes52c60.38$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.42250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0384…639bbacked Yes18c60$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.82240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa870…2cd1backed No78c51.27$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2817978.8%141 W · 38 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick78cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5552…d1c2backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7277…8bf4backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102821.4%6 W · 22 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick16cpaid-53.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc00a…2424backed No62c48.08$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.085959.3%35 W · 24 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb641…9d08backed Yes28c46.16$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.03560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes77c46$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.35046%23 W · 27 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-27.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb5cd…0388backed No24c45.53$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.53450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+48.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe327…cd96backed Yes47c40.69$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+21%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c45…7aa4backed Yes64c40.31$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.842250%11 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec95…7332backed Yes52c40$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.72347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3161…623dbacked No80c40$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.052050%10 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5364…31d7backed Yes61c40$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xab60…ac53backed No59c38.14$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.56650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+236.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4863…805bbacked Yes48c31.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1550%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c6e…2960backed Yes42c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-48.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbb8…8b21backed No67c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.91947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb92b…654dbacked Yes64c29.46$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa64b…3052backed Yes57c28.2$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.12333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-52.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes49c26.49$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1316242.6%69 W · 93 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6715…eb49backed No67c24.13$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.01540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-34.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb74…83aabacked No80c24.06$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.87922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-54.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaec1…9c96backed No55c22.7$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.18475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+38.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3744…3e65backed No49c20.29$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.251118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick11cpaid-43.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f21…c693backed No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513167.9%89 W · 42 L+15.5wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9f3f…af73backed No76c19.96$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.8119848%95 W · 103 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b1…ef08backed Yes68c18.72$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.65475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.