Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2dfb6dd30e4f4653cb18f1ca53da346457141af5827cff2e4e0e50f1382fd1a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $92,778
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,153
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,778 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4e3…4cc6backed Yes | 0c | 18,620$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x979c…47dbbacked Yes | 1c | 6,396$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec3a…a709backed No | 56c | 2,249$1,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$995.52 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1e…66f1backed Yes | 1c | 2,029$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -66%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 19c | 1,961$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.62 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed6…d123backed Yes | 2c | 1,897$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 2cpaid | +2,400%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c8…c312backed Yes | 1c | 1,059$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…6f1abacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d5…59cebacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 1cpaid | +3,233.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 63c | 976.41$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.04 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed7…07e7backed Yes | 58c | 647.83$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4f…d890backed No | 68c | 582.57$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.57 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 19c | 539.1$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.43 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 31c | 520.16$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.69 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 45c | 520.02$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.51 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa629…fe39backed Yes | 8c | 511.35$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…e517backed Yes | 44c | 465.87$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 14c | 450.66$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.38 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked Yes | 9c | 445.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 132 | 23.5%31 W · 101 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 436.81$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.74 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa462…0fb2backed Yes | 45c | 432.83$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.04 | 119 | 20.2%24 W · 95 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 34c | 409.97$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.48 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6d…1358backed No | 78c | 287.47$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.31 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 30c | 260.3$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.46 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 71c | 251.81$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.01 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…75c8backed Yes | 8c | 239.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed No | 51c | 226.19$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.51 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 28c | 221$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9d…11a8backed Yes | 66c | 219.43$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb63b…4e0fbacked Yes | 28c | 217.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0c…43aabacked Yes | 31c | 214.84$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.27 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c87…3b59backed Yes | 38c | 211.44$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 28c | 199.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 199.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.99 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb009…b498backed Yes | 12c | 195.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 18c | 187.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x588e…5a21backed Yes | 40c | 182.02$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.76 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb79…9822backed Yes | 63c | 180.7$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a12…0a16backed No | 69c | 173.29$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b19…6b1cbacked Yes | 24c | 172.06$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.47 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70f1…c8cebacked Yes | 65c | 171.59$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.03 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.28per pick | 41cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 27c | 163.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 11c | 161.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…b44bbacked Yes | 70c | 161.49$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.25 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 21c | 156.57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 9c | 155$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked No | 45c | 151.37$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.76 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 37c | 149.89$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.78 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x195e…5b32backed Yes | 11c | 140.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9349…0486backed Yes | 66c | 138.88$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…f3d3backed Yes | 41c | 124.85$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0f…72ddbacked Yes | 11c | 120$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0d…c219backed Yes | 14c | 120$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 29c | 110.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.63 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…1829backed Yes | 29c | 105$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa719…c7b0backed Yes | 23c | 101.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…eac7backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe838…3832backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…6e96backed Yes | 20c | 97.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f70…088dbacked Yes | 13c | 95.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6644…5b8fbacked No | 69c | 93.61$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 75c | 93.14$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 90.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 79c | 88.78$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc863…eb87backed Yes | 14c | 86.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b03…1f22backed Yes | 27c | 83.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd734…b12cbacked Yes | 16c | 77.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed No | 74c | 70.01$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked Yes | 38c | 65.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 65.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb387…775cbacked Yes | 42c | 65.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe658…488bbacked Yes | 39c | 64.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c54…5bc7backed Yes | 52c | 60.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0384…639bbacked Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 78c | 51.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5552…d1c2backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7277…8bf4backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc00a…2424backed No | 62c | 48.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb641…9d08backed Yes | 28c | 46.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 77c | 46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cd…0388backed No | 24c | 45.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe327…cd96backed Yes | 47c | 40.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c45…7aa4backed Yes | 64c | 40.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec95…7332backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…623dbacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5364…31d7backed Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab60…ac53backed No | 59c | 38.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +236.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4863…805bbacked Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6e…2960backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb8…8b21backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb92b…654dbacked Yes | 64c | 29.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa64b…3052backed Yes | 57c | 28.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 49c | 26.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6715…eb49backed No | 67c | 24.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb74…83aabacked No | 80c | 24.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaec1…9c96backed No | 55c | 22.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3744…3e65backed No | 49c | 20.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f21…c693backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +15.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed No | 76c | 19.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b1…ef08backed Yes | 68c | 18.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on January 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on January 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C or below on January 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.