TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on January 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$44,228
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$47,317

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,228 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xac79…dbf0backed No1c6,693$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.2950%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc11e…75c8backed No9c1,920$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.888623.3%20 W · 66 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+47.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x08cf…8cbcbacked Yes74c1,548$1,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.9210751.4%55 W · 52 L+9.2wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+3.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes49c883.48$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.820631.6%65 W · 141 L-23.6wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-38.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No31c856.97$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.267244.4%32 W · 40 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x584e…090fbacked Yes80c687.71$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.5147834.3%164 W · 314 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa629…fe39backed Yes70c651.26$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.615446.3%25 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+60.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x389a…cf3dbacked Yes71c642.15$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.0513223.5%31 W · 101 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-25.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb79…9822backed Yes66c525.81$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.77450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes61c525.4$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.4983332.1%267 W · 566 L+24.4wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No29c403.45$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.5412251.6%63 W · 59 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x89c6…6f63backed No15c400$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes77c368.36$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.0439541.3%163 W · 232 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No7c359.96$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.032,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No36c321.05$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.6384759.4%503 W · 344 L+41.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x90fa…78a0backed Yes67c297.72$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.721233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-41.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8672…a96ebacked Yes66c293.87$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.9650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-24.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa462…0fb2backed Yes15c279.35$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.311920.2%24 W · 95 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+28.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ed7…07e7backed Yes76c236.88$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.88250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No28c207.26$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.313,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9469…6d18backed No30c199.98$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9995942.4%407 W · 552 L+84.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xadd8…4edbbacked No53c195.29$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.33652.8%19 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-23.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x88fb…e517backed Yes71c190.3$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.42250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ae…74c0backed No78c179.05$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14015752.2%82 W · 75 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes49c177.76$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.591,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No42c168.01$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.138,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc135…a01abacked Yes74c166.51$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.4761659.3%365 W · 251 L+68.7wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+17%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No34c164.13$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.191,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe9d…11a8backed Yes68c157.4$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.9333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-50.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05a1…89f9backed No14c140.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202334.8%8 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x875e…e6b5backed No77c120$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.28176.5%62 W · 19 L+14.7wins+0.18per pick58cpaid+39%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x5bbd…268ebacked Yes74c112.94$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33b8…411fbacked Yes73c112.93$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.22666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick73cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fd5…cf27backed Yes55c105.28$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.56258.1%36 W · 26 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+17.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No46c102.19$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.152,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3161…623dbacked Yes46c102.01$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.422050%10 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe838…3832backed Yes46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x95cd…4f91backed Yes65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53cd…14babacked No30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xed87…b78abacked Yes47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532650%13 W · 13 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+28%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0f60…e547backed Yes68c96.23$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.21040%4 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8f8…0f11backed No60c95.51$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9496620.7%200 W · 766 L+59.8wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+96.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes14c93.62$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.0856424.5%138 W · 426 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9526…8f87backed Yes66c91.1$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.13941%16 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+19.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaecd…f83cbacked No50c90.7$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb009…b498backed Yes39c80$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.76139.3%24 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f04…7fb9backed No53c78$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.72333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick64cpaid-53.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e89…9675backed Yes66c75.96$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.97366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes63c75.06$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0611646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0d6…bbaebacked Yes79c75$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.73540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-45.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x195e…5b32backed No18c74.95$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.625016%8 W · 42 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-49.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No36c74.18$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xb550…84fbbacked Yes69c72.46$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.461050%5 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f1d…c41dbacked No42c71.34$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3021847.7%104 W · 114 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes70c70$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1210…35d8backed No46c69.3$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc00a…2424backed Yes54c65.3$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.35959.3%35 W · 24 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe62e…917cbacked Yes52c63.13$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.0215558.7%91 W · 64 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes30c62.09$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.713,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6ca2backed No51c61.86$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.593764.9%24 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes44c61.17$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.1916465.2%107 W · 57 L+18.9wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+27.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd49e…5110backed Yes30c59.39$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.618924.7%22 W · 67 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-22.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3d65…2061backed No47c58.8$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.427560%45 W · 30 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b19…6b1cbacked Yes68c57.08$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.278348.2%40 W · 43 L+7.6wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+4.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb387…775cbacked Yes55c56.42$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.631241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-32.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes31c56.3$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8326339.9%105 W · 158 L+17.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a8e…05a4backed No46c51.95$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.943050.2%216 W · 214 L+21.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x588e…5a21backed Yes71c51.7$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.041643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x391c…68d1backed No49c50.81$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255152.9%27 W · 24 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-17.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcac0…a0b8backed Yes72c50.08$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.031973.7%14 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick61cpaid+16.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No47c49.93$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.667,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes57c49.31$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.318337.3%31 W · 52 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf3c3…386ebacked Yes41c48.58$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.58560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d3e…c49ebacked No47c47.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.551,11065%722 W · 388 L+38.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe63…2de4backed Yes63c47.86$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8611546.1%53 W · 62 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff18…da47backed Yes37c47.05$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.6426434.1%90 W · 174 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32e2…6199backed No40c46.81$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.51315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-60.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x436a…0bfabacked Yes53c45$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.951540%6 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04db…a9a4backed Yes48c44.18$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9875%6 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+19.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbde…1dd2backed No46c43.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5490…c716backed Yes54c42.59$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.735154.9%28 W · 23 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x365f…e1d0backed Yes53c41.88$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.768253.7%44 W · 38 L-10.2wins-0.12per pick66cpaid-19.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes60c40.8$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.264333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e9c…3262backed Yes40c40$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.82520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick54cpaid-50.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd591…6958backed Yes62c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c54…5bc7backed Yes63c39.96$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.96250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9349…0486backed Yes76c39.47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.47366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick73cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes44c36.48$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.3717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x286f…82a5backed Yes56c35.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.82966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6400…016fbacked Yes66c35.77$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70f1…c8cebacked No39c35.73$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.781513.3%2 W · 13 L-4.2wins-0.28per pick41cpaid-80.6%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xf43c…989bbacked Yes62c33.63$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.632737%10 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-29.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xec0c…8589backed No41c31.8$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0410346.6%48 W · 55 L+0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbb8…8b21backed No49c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.631947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x85b5…1948backed No54c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.28551.8%44 W · 41 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d0f…72ddbacked Yes45c28.94$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.81850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b0d…c219backed Yes56c27.98$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.22812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick31cpaid-77.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe658…488bbacked Yes70c26.79$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.04955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+34.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe327…cd96backed Yes61c24.62$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.62366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+21%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5835…59e7backed Yes61c24.34$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.49633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-43.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.