Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on January 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d5c96cb618ac8af1d2195711d431ae6e1309305d5dc9c6820e1c4138cff0f39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,228
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,317
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,228 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac79…dbf0backed No | 1c | 6,693$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.29 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…75c8backed No | 9c | 1,920$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.88 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…8cbcbacked Yes | 74c | 1,548$1,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.92 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 49c | 883.48$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.8 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 31c | 856.97$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.26 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 80c | 687.71$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.51 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa629…fe39backed Yes | 70c | 651.26$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.61 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked Yes | 71c | 642.15$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.05 | 132 | 23.5%31 W · 101 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb79…9822backed Yes | 66c | 525.81$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 61c | 525.4$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.49 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 29c | 403.45$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.54 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c6…6f63backed No | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 77c | 368.36$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.04 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 359.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 36c | 321.05$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.63 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90fa…78a0backed Yes | 67c | 297.72$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.72 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8672…a96ebacked Yes | 66c | 293.87$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa462…0fb2backed Yes | 15c | 279.35$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.3 | 119 | 20.2%24 W · 95 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed7…07e7backed Yes | 76c | 236.88$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 28c | 207.26$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 199.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xadd8…4edbbacked No | 53c | 195.29$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.3 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…e517backed Yes | 71c | 190.3$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed No | 78c | 179.05$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 49c | 177.76$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.59 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 42c | 168.01$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.13 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 74c | 166.51$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 34c | 164.13$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.19 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9d…11a8backed Yes | 68c | 157.4$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05a1…89f9backed No | 14c | 140.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed No | 77c | 120$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.2 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbd…268ebacked Yes | 74c | 112.94$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b8…411fbacked Yes | 73c | 112.93$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd5…cf27backed Yes | 55c | 105.28$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 46c | 102.19$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…623dbacked Yes | 46c | 102.01$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.42 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe838…3832backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…4f91backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…14babacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed87…b78abacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…e547backed Yes | 68c | 96.23$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 60c | 95.51$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.94 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 14c | 93.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.08 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9526…8f87backed Yes | 66c | 91.1$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaecd…f83cbacked No | 50c | 90.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb009…b498backed Yes | 39c | 80$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.7 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f04…7fb9backed No | 53c | 78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e89…9675backed Yes | 66c | 75.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 63c | 75.06$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d6…bbaebacked Yes | 79c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x195e…5b32backed No | 18c | 74.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 74.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb550…84fbbacked Yes | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 42c | 71.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1210…35d8backed No | 46c | 69.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc00a…2424backed Yes | 54c | 65.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked Yes | 52c | 63.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 30c | 62.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.71 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6ca2backed No | 51c | 61.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 44c | 61.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd49e…5110backed Yes | 30c | 59.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.61 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d65…2061backed No | 47c | 58.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b19…6b1cbacked Yes | 68c | 57.08$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb387…775cbacked Yes | 55c | 56.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 31c | 56.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.83 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 46c | 51.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x588e…5a21backed Yes | 71c | 51.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391c…68d1backed No | 49c | 50.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcac0…a0b8backed Yes | 72c | 50.08$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 47c | 49.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes | 57c | 49.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c3…386ebacked Yes | 41c | 48.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 47c | 47.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 63c | 47.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 37c | 47.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…6199backed No | 40c | 46.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x436a…0bfabacked Yes | 53c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04db…a9a4backed Yes | 48c | 44.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbde…1dd2backed No | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5490…c716backed Yes | 54c | 42.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…e1d0backed Yes | 53c | 41.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 60c | 40.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9c…3262backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd591…6958backed Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c54…5bc7backed Yes | 63c | 39.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9349…0486backed Yes | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 44c | 36.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286f…82a5backed Yes | 56c | 35.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…016fbacked Yes | 66c | 35.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70f1…c8cebacked No | 39c | 35.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.28per pick | 41cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf43c…989bbacked Yes | 62c | 33.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed No | 41c | 31.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb8…8b21backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85b5…1948backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0f…72ddbacked Yes | 45c | 28.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0d…c219backed Yes | 56c | 27.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe658…488bbacked Yes | 70c | 26.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe327…cd96backed Yes | 61c | 24.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5835…59e7backed Yes | 61c | 24.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on January 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on January 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C or below on January 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.