Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on January 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9428a60404a6b82eae8925de6969b064939383ceeb3bcb0213cefb6ec0c5fa9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,235
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,343
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,235 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 0c | 6,056$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 2c | 2,100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,249$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.12 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,078$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…75c8backed Yes | 2c | 1,033$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 4c | 1,024$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes | 2c | 749.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 3c | 699.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa462…0fb2backed Yes | 6c | 500$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 119 | 20.2%24 W · 95 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4f…d890backed Yes | 13c | 437.14$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.08 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 9c | 380.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes | 13c | 376.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f70…088dbacked Yes | 3c | 338.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 74c | 292.23$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 284.19$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.14 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb485…20a5backed Yes | 18c | 275.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b5…93b8backed Yes | 8c | 274.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0c…43aabacked Yes | 6c | 217.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 201.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a9…8823backed Yes | 50c | 199.82$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6d…1358backed Yes | 13c | 196.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…623dbacked Yes | 24c | 181.05$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 26c | 133.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 17c | 130$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 21c | 123.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 10c | 115$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6210…9f18backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 65.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed No | 76c | 60.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7db9…5c01backed Yes | 25c | 59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 58.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcac0…a0b8backed Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 51.01$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9c…3262backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb009…b498backed Yes | 21c | 49.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa10d…da39backed No | 75c | 47.86$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…6525backed Yes | 53c | 34.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8d…c149backed Yes | 30c | 33.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47b7…ffdfbacked No | 77c | 23.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x211b…324dbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ce…8354backed No | 74c | 18.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on January 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on January 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C or below on January 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.