Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the DC Crime Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26403c535f173c8efc36951cf058f8a1e4233618b042d35d37e8130aa2145f42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,070
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,032
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,070 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaec2…cb66backed Yes | 5c | 1,900$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +67%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33cf…d71bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,805$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa765…ec70backed Yes | 5c | 1,228$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a4…9ba4backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1cc…3ff4backed Yes | 7c | 734.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 4c | 700$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd5…5542backed Yes | 4c | 677$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…166bbacked Yes | 5c | 511.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4c…3376backed Yes | 4c | 500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…b9bebacked Yes | 6c | 402.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0da7…ca6cbacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb9…edc4backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 5c | 349$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x478d…e4bbbacked Yes | 5c | 335.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Yes | 6c | 313.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…4bdbbacked Yes | 7c | 285.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe898…769fbacked Yes | 5c | 274.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42d8…ff9bbacked Yes | 4c | 270$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -88.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2308…68e4backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 7c | 250$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa9…5e52backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5b…567dbacked Yes | 7c | 219.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x092c…97debacked Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f7…c03bbacked Yes | 6c | 172.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the DC Crime Press Conference?this page
- Will Trump say "Autopen" during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Big Balls" or "Coristine" during the DC Crime Press Conference?No won
- Will Trump say "Crime" 10+ times during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "DOGE" during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Federalize" during the DC Crime Press Conference?No won
- Will Trump say "ICE" during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 5+ times during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Mexican" or "Mexico" during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Million" "Billion" or "Trillion" 7+ times during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "National Guard" during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Thug" or "Cartel" during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.