TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel strikes Yemen by Monday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$531,974
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$456,632

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $531,974 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 256 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xddc0…3a00backed No28c42,930$11,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,879.912548%12 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f58…0ff0backed No1c32,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001520%3 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick9cpaid+58.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked No2c25,560$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.2627047.8%129 W · 141 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c71…3689backed No0c21,751$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.76250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b26…f07bbacked Yes79c17,937$14,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,740.32250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3164…3033backed Yes79c16,926$13,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,589.228056.3%45 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa074…f1c9backed No25c13,469$3,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,370.52911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-84.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58f4…12a9backed No14c12,071$1,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,675.351241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-37.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f00…2b5bbacked Yes78c11,656$9,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,603.981442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+26.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x89ae…4b0abacked No1c10,710$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.75273.7%1 W · 26 L-4.1wins-0.15per pick19cpaid-94.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x17c8…42a4backed No1c10,694$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed No0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20581.7%1 W · 57 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-93.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83ec…5ea9backed No1c10,000$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce41…fa02backed Yes57c9,762$5,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,200.081172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick55cpaid+71.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked No14c9,000$1,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,222.127445.9%34 W · 40 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+39.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No19c8,440$1,639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,638.8735819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7d4…fb37backed Yes74c7,440$5,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,959.51181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.22per pick60cpaid+43.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x037e…0c63backed Yes68c7,210$4,917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,292.933336.4%12 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb07e…4cc4backed No2c7,167$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-30.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfeed…7388backed No1c6,788$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-40.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e21…2442backed No9c6,744$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a3…71babacked No2c6,160$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.0460%0 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x44c7…32cbbacked No12c5,250$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.761546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked No12c5,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60017018.2%31 W · 139 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+77.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf513…8297backed No14c4,250$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59550%0 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x34a9…9e88backed No34c3,702$1,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2742642.3%11 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-26%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21be…457bbacked No24c3,699$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-61.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45cc…6400backed No8c3,654$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.27145.1%32 W · 39 L-8.3wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-29.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No3c3,637$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.941,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95e6…1d2bbacked No21c3,600$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.912321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-54.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ad9…91bdbacked No2c3,559$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.51711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid-44.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed No11c3,200$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.510153.5%54 W · 47 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17b7…1eccbacked No0c3,160$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.73250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-21%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No18c3,077$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.5820549.8%102 W · 103 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe967…f62bbacked Yes70c3,021$2,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$919.431637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x557e…5007backed Yes78c2,960$2,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6456546.2%30 W · 35 L+8.4wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+92.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf00a…c77cbacked Yes75c2,939$2,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720.784753.2%25 W · 22 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8933…1495backed No11c2,922$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.38862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x50a4…bdf5backed Yes64c2,808$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,008.483429.4%10 W · 24 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed No16c2,806$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.3914827%40 W · 108 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-34.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d77…abd5backed No3c2,671$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.72250%11 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-14.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2a7…776bbacked No32c2,637$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.11714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.29per pick44cpaid-79.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe6f6…e34ebacked No2c2,634$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74fb…6a7dbacked No8c2,606$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8964…0becbacked No19c2,474$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.491241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-38.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ba4…c08bbacked No20c2,466$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-55.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f64…32b3backed No18c2,465$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.9350%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd30…81fbbacked No16c2,352$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.291118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick40cpaid-73.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd687…c066backed No9c2,170$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.93748.6%18 W · 19 L+3.9wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+0.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x922f…69d4backed No32c1,902$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.661735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-31.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed No4c1,838$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.6516537%61 W · 104 L+11.5wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+25.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed Yes69c1,750$1,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.0533337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84fd…2f81backed No20c1,664$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.6619445.9%89 W · 105 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe231…4e3ebacked No62c1,610$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,004.5425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-64.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x95c8…f511backed No23c1,565$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.085532.7%18 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde8f…bcbfbacked No1c1,505$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked No38c1,335$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.8916743.7%73 W · 94 L+11.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcda1…d9adbacked Yes73c1,323$968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.666637.9%25 W · 41 L-5.4wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-25.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3a0d…2a33backed Yes75c1,289$963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.373745.9%17 W · 20 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x359d…7f8dbacked No1c1,200$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.22420.8%5 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-68.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No14c1,199$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.889955.6%55 W · 44 L+10.5wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+17%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x6d4e…25a6backed No17c1,126$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.9850%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x233d…6a8abacked No14c1,049$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.45137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.19per pick26cpaid-85.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x76b0…338abacked No21c1,046$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.765642.9%24 W · 32 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4283…fbd4backed Yes78c1,012$792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.221154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-0.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x12b8…e956backed No16c1,007$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.632365.2%15 W · 8 L+3.1wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+11.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed No2c1,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1543212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d58…b8a8backed No18c977.37$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc976…0ad5backed Yes70c971$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.33534.3%12 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d1d…5aa0backed No18c968.24$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.9421926.5%58 W · 161 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+76.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa88d…ce01backed No21c948.86$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.73250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+20.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c22…1f55backed No22c912.25$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c7d…52bebacked No33c905.91$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.25425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-60.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ac6…2192backed No13c900.19$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.272524%6 W · 19 L-5.5wins-0.22per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2359…f72bbacked No18c889.13$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.832263.6%14 W · 8 L+4.1wins+0.19per pick45cpaid+19.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No9c862.45$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7947334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d0d…be76backed No30c840.47$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x016e…c700backed Yes60c834.75$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.75862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick57cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed95…b1e6backed No35c775$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.853016.7%5 W · 25 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-62.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x357b…0b65backed No29c766.13$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.861747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6590…ad78backed No12c725.83$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.668529.4%25 W · 60 L-0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bf4…7021backed No22c722.72$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15914743.5%64 W · 83 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-26.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x44aa…12debacked No14c719.07$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x712a…76b1backed No22c712.72$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.56120%0 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x50f1…1fa1backed No21c710.78$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-65.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe781…5e52backed No22c690.52$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502365.2%15 W · 8 L+4.3wins+0.18per pick47cpaid+87.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x391e…ec9abacked No11c689.51$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.712965.5%19 W · 10 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7366…c46abacked No5c625$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea36…f272backed No32c616.94$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.68333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick20cpaid+23.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5954…2b5fbacked No12c609.26$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.677323.3%17 W · 56 L-7.8wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-56.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No21c600.71$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.8289617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x21b8…66b8backed No39c590$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.450%0 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb6dd…d56fbacked No7c588.93$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc052…8524backed No16c560$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.51338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb984…2a41backed No11c550$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.57429.7%22 W · 52 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+16.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes66c537.15$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.6756336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5e1f…7828backed No30c519.03$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.713724.3%9 W · 28 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+76.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xece7…6979backed No43c508.89$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-60.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc629…aa40backed No35c500$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1752347.8%11 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x52f5…19dabacked Yes57c500$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21512245.9%56 W · 66 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.