TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x359d…7f8d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
87
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Champions League, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Champions League at 55 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 24, 2026, EST2420.8%5 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-68.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$30.95
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$46.5
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$31.3
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$95.43
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$19.96
US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$32.7
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15.5
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$462Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$461.87
Israel strikes Yemen by Monday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.2
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$137.8
Israel strike on Iran on June 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$24
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT+27.4%+$23.65
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$24
Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$13.5
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled before March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST+35.1%+$5.2
Will the U.S. remove HTS from terror list before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$30.5
Israel announces ceasefire by January 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$28.24
Another Israeli military action against Iran in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$26.85
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$68.06
Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$661Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$661.4
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$942Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST+100.3%+$944.87
Assad leaves Syria before 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST+57.8%+$66.67
Israel withdraws from Lebanon before December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST-100%-$12.31
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2024, EST-100%-$20
All 24 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2025, EDT2138.1%8 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+35.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Champions League — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.63
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT+882.4%+$109.42
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$111.23
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-04-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$66
Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-04-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.2
Will Bayern Munich win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.6
Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-04-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2025, EDT+52.3%+$20.6
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-04-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.9
UEFA Nations League Round of 8: Netherlands vs. Spainbacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$15.4
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-03-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.3
Will Liverpool win on 2025-03-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.8
Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-03-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT+150%+$24
Will Barcelona win on 2025-03-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2025, EST+180.8%+$57.95
Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2025, EST-100%-$21.9
Will Manchester City win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2025, EST-100%-$15.69
Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-02-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+38.9%+$8.25
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-02-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2025, EST+602.7%+$111.5
Will Liverpool beat PSV Eindhoven?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$21.71
Will Celtic beat Young Boys?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST+98.7%+$14.9
All 21 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2025, EST911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-76.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will another movie gross most in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$50.7
Will 'Mufasa: The Lion King' gross more than $70m on 3-day opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST-100%-$14.08
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $64-72m on 3-day opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST-100%-$73.88
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $72-80m on 3-day opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST-100%-$29.27
Will "Mufasa: The Lion King" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 60-69?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST-100%-$24.7
Will 'Moana 2' gross between $165-180m on 5-day opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2024, EST-100%-$34.8
Will 'Moana 2' gross between $150-165m on 5-day opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2024, EST-100%-$18.84
Will 'Moana 2' gross more than $180m on 5-day opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2024, EST+108.3%+$15.6
Will 'Wicked' gross between $115-125m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2024, EST-100%-$12.74
All 9 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jun 27, 2025, EDT80%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick35cpaid-71.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2025, EDT425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-55.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick54cpaid+90.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+117.4%+$54
Trudeau out before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST+63.9%+$9.78
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 5, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick69cpaid+46.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bears vs. Packersbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST+49.3%+$16.5
Texans vs. Chiefsbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST+42.9%+$9
All 2 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Devils vs. Sharksbacked Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST+78.6%+$22
Islanders vs. Blackhawksbacked Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$19.38
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 23, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$69.69
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$41.9
All 2 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST+58.7%+$23.49
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 21, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Matt Gaetz confirmed as Attorney General?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2024, EST+25%+$2.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 19, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2025, EST-100%-$12
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$17.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 5, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Celtics vs. Thunderbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST-100%-$107.4
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.