Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled before March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae7d433770282e163a952f4c5d01ed877f9bdd9624d9ba14a3cbebdc0d953488
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $156,769
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $129,915
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $156,769 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 7c | 11,676$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.68 | 76 | 10.5%8 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe352…f259backed Yes | 6c | 10,000$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 7c | 6,777$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.41 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcdef…010bbacked Yes | 23c | 4,499$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,034.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 12c | 4,435$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.68 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1c…5d20backed Yes | 10c | 4,068$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa386…a3aebacked Yes | 6c | 3,176$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e63…9313backed Yes | 10c | 2,950$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 7c | 2,686$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.42 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a15…0246backed Yes | 12c | 2,431$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.12 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7f…bf9abacked Yes | 14c | 2,218$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 77c | 2,172$1,679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.91 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 2c | 2,148$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.42 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ac…4b00backed Yes | 10c | 2,081$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8081…6d62backed No | 77c | 1,986$1,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.52 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 8c | 1,909$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.58 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 6c | 1,820$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.49 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…2a88backed Yes | 11c | 1,704$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 10c | 1,555$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.45 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 9c | 1,518$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.89 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x698f…ae41backed Yes | 17c | 1,474$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked Yes | 20c | 1,349$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.91 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x758c…074abacked Yes | 8c | 1,344$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.46 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 8c | 1,300$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 58 | 1.7%1 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -93.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 3c | 1,138$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Yes | 9c | 1,116$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31e3…9d7ebacked Yes | 28c | 1,084$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb059…a79abacked Yes | 9c | 1,084$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x645e…d120backed Yes | 14c | 1,002$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.66 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6b…fba5backed Yes | 17c | 1,000$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +156.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5923…a3f7backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.01 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…4db3backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9783…1495backed Yes | 9c | 979.07$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.42 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…5ccdbacked Yes | 2c | 947.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…7112backed No | 69c | 881.42$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.73 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 4c | 869.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 2c | 852.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 162 | 25.9%42 W · 120 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 69c | 851$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.51 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fda…5b87backed Yes | 17c | 752.87$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.25 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3275…2e5abacked Yes | 15c | 715.92$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.84 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 7c | 695.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 66 | 3%2 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -95.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 7c | 690.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…81b1backed Yes | 28c | 649.98$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -7.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Yes | 16c | 637.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…0978backed Yes | 17c | 634.1$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.2 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +8.1wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaba0…29fcbacked Yes | 20c | 575.91$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.72 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…3e1ebacked Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 12c | 524.38$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.65 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -64%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76bd…f258backed Yes | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…1601backed Yes | 11c | 436.55$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad7b…63dabacked No | 76c | 391.9$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.01 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x207a…6fecbacked Yes | 31c | 383.39$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.22 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…bbe6backed Yes | 11c | 377.07$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x670b…e4afbacked No | 79c | 360.6$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.96 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…03c2backed Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c57…224bbacked Yes | 10c | 332.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 306.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc853…7809backed Yes | 16c | 299.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 25cpaid | +490.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6540…22dcbacked Yes | 42c | 298.4$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb3…8460backed Yes | 17c | 293.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 21cpaid | +145.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x372b…2edabacked Yes | 10c | 287.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 6c | 270$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 27c | 260.3$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0877…fa92backed Yes | 9c | 257.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e38…2f28backed Yes | 11c | 255.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6d…0556backed Yes | 10c | 255$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +6.1wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes | 7c | 250$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | +46%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…4e80backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 12c | 233.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb36…09f3backed Yes | 17c | 214.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 13c | 211.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6711…7d95backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x639b…15d6backed Yes | 23c | 193.29$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…3ddabacked No | 77c | 181.82$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbee7…ee01backed Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acb…8d7ebacked Yes | 19c | 160.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed No | 70c | 160$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeba…c7fabacked Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 20c | 147.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaed7…8f85backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fd…1e36backed Yes | 28c | 141.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3a…aad9backed Yes | 36c | 122.9$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x797d…f6aabacked Yes | 46c | 109.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…f050backed No | 66c | 109.53$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 22c | 108.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5c…3912backed Yes | 30c | 104.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3c…4e8bbacked Yes | 26c | 103.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +10.2wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | +7.4wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3db2…ec33backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c60…45b8backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.