Movies · resolved market
Will 'Moana 2' gross more than $180m on 5-day opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10374c401f0dcc7c28a352edd39f2044d1366a31c7b7941b730ff6f20f4b39c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,766,236
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,076,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,766,236 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 410 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 3c | 85,538$2,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,975 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 72c | 80,041$57,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,544.63 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0d03…289abacked No | 6c | 57,800$3,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,299.54 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x040e…8edfbacked Yes | 72c | 55,125$39,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,584.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e18…f52abacked No | 58c | 50,746$29,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,394.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…ee54backed No | 11c | 46,515$5,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,054.97 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 30c | 42,067$12,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,641.88 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0f…e8bebacked No | 2c | 41,964$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27b6…26e9backed No | 21c | 36,426$7,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,517.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 73c | 30,805$22,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,452.89 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacd9…3d87backed Yes | 56c | 29,101$16,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,884.33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4d…4a91backed Yes | 65c | 27,988$18,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,896.73 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf4…6bf6backed No | 24c | 25,426$6,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,177.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 3c | 20,556$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.29 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 66c | 17,982$11,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,034.63 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a39…5077backed No | 39c | 17,186$6,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,652.35 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 56c | 13,485$7,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,533.17 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…6e65backed No | 39c | 13,339$5,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,165.84 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -58%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed Yes | 69c | 13,314$9,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,142.82 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…c9cdbacked No | 22c | 12,415$2,768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,767.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 65c | 11,287$7,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,003.11 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked No | 10c | 10,999$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,119.89 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6419…0f53backed No | 30c | 10,880$3,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,231.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbba…dbffbacked No | 41c | 9,795$4,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,057.34 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed Yes | 44c | 9,434$4,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,274.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +120.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba73…0cfdbacked Yes | 39c | 9,030$3,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,486.08 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +9.6wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ff…9262backed No | 44c | 8,721$3,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,871.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…02debacked No | 31c | 8,584$2,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,647.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a70…52ccbacked No | 46c | 8,157$3,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,763.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x188b…6003backed No | 26c | 8,018$2,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,082.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…8be7backed No | 49c | 7,587$3,727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,726.83 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a9…0b5abacked No | 43c | 6,747$2,894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,893.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 78c | 6,561$5,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,416.74 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 41c | 6,332$2,598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,733.86 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94f2…94f1backed No | 64c | 5,831$3,716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,716.13 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d2…1151backed No | 20c | 5,121$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.88 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 36c | 5,018$1,816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,202.2 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9981…dec4backed No | 36c | 5,000$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed No | 60c | 4,966$2,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,975.65 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcefa…bef8backed No | 12c | 4,878$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.66 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed No | 18c | 4,849$873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872.7 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8af4…2474backed No | 39c | 4,817$1,877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,877.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe135…7f76backed No | 3c | 4,740$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.44 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6050…80d6backed No | 2c | 4,327$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.47 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc366…a27bbacked No | 56c | 4,213$2,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,352.06 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 54c | 4,176$2,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,258.41 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88d9…ae29backed No | 4c | 3,923$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 54c | 3,844$2,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,772.27 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc181…9bf6backed No | 3c | 3,636$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…27fcbacked No | 3c | 3,452$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.53 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +58%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4020…d6c0backed No | 34c | 3,278$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,110.46 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…1676backed No | 21c | 3,075$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.5 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73b7…9360backed No | 6c | 3,000$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x240e…e8aabacked No | 39c | 3,000$1,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,184 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d7b…edd2backed No | 7c | 3,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1246…6192backed No | 16c | 2,961$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.99 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae24…07c2backed No | 46c | 2,950$1,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,357.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…6bafbacked No | 4c | 2,857$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…e209backed No | 38c | 2,846$1,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083.95 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -54%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed No | 49c | 2,794$1,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,356.72 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0858…aa21backed No | 6c | 2,793$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x792d…c475backed No | 14c | 2,792$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.05 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1f…8538backed No | 2c | 2,770$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c62…9b49backed No | 14c | 2,695$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e91…85aabacked No | 39c | 2,564$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc7…b81cbacked No | 2c | 2,500$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x971b…ec79backed No | 1c | 2,222$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85a5…c8d9backed No | 55c | 2,200$1,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,208.02 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 72c | 2,178$1,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.16 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cca…27d3backed No | 12c | 2,138$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…1f84backed No | 8c | 2,131$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked No | 28c | 2,126$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.01 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked No | 46c | 2,125$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.29 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…f0babacked No | 6c | 2,125$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf393…7fc8backed No | 32c | 2,069$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75da…4688backed No | 18c | 2,062$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.66 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a32…8671backed No | 40c | 2,022$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 77c | 2,020$1,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.6 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 6c | 2,010$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.8 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 24c | 1,991$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,511.92 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a7…12ddbacked No | 5c | 1,972$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418e…8984backed No | 7c | 1,952$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a77…6502backed No | 35c | 1,947$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.82 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes | 70c | 1,877$1,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.73 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3b…d67cbacked No | 2c | 1,713$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x648c…09c6backed Yes | 39c | 1,709$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.23 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed No | 54c | 1,663$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.8 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…7a3ebacked No | 32c | 1,656$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa747…46dfbacked No | 17c | 1,522$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb037…a49ebacked No | 66c | 1,458$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2e…6672backed No | 40c | 1,431$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa69f…6874backed Yes | 61c | 1,381$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.56 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked No | 4c | 1,378$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa71…11c7backed No | 56c | 1,375$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…84efbacked No | 41c | 1,301$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.9 | 74 | 14.9%11 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7782…5e21backed No | 3c | 1,301$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x184d…0a71backed No | 31c | 1,287$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.01 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb468…ff6ebacked No | 40c | 1,237$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -58%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked No | 31c | 1,213$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.24 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…0465backed No | 11c | 1,200$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Moana 2' gross more than $180m on 5-day opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Moana 2' gross between $135-150m on 5-day opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Moana 2' gross between $150-165m on 5-day opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Moana 2' gross between $165-180m on 5-day opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Moana 2' gross less than $135m on 5-day opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.