Movies · resolved market
Will 'Moana 2' gross less than $135m on 5-day opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94f5f51c163ab8260561ff80992efdfe91168d0421cddb8963157e5ebe1d87be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,218,404
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,064,480
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,218,404 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 154 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 0c | 164,273$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.25 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a39…5077backed Yes | 3c | 121,477$3,521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,520.6 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…1676backed Yes | 1c | 65,010$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.7 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…ee54backed Yes | 3c | 51,255$1,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,460 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 3c | 30,692$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.82 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2e…6672backed Yes | 4c | 24,278$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x242e…ee63backed Yes | 5c | 18,916$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 7c | 15,881$1,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050.72 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 7c | 15,433$1,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.82 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc99c…5c6bbacked Yes | 4c | 14,714$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.03 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b9…77bdbacked Yes | 2c | 11,598$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa529…0818backed Yes | 2c | 11,465$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.39 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 3c | 11,241$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.23 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcefa…bef8backed Yes | 2c | 8,000$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3b…d67cbacked Yes | 0c | 7,333$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe135…7f76backed Yes | 2c | 7,156$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.78 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3c…3b54backed Yes | 5c | 6,814$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.42 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…9305backed Yes | 4c | 6,453$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b4…5aabbacked Yes | 4c | 6,134$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.78 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -92.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbba…dbffbacked Yes | 8c | 6,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xece2…b05fbacked Yes | 4c | 5,105$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…6e65backed Yes | 3c | 5,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -58%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae24…07c2backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8af4…2474backed Yes | 4c | 4,957$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ff…9262backed Yes | 4c | 4,839$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 8c | 4,767$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.11 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x305c…dc57backed Yes | 5c | 4,500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…8070backed Yes | 5c | 4,415$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…31ebbacked Yes | 5c | 4,229$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.02 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 8c | 4,185$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.94 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a9…0b5abacked Yes | 26c | 4,081$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078.88 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2437…9514backed Yes | 6c | 3,776$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79d2…9c24backed Yes | 3c | 3,723$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d7b…edd2backed Yes | 7c | 3,611$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…4edabacked Yes | 1c | 3,572$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb118…da1ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,462$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 3c | 3,300$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.7 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76b9…b4febacked Yes | 5c | 3,179$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.91 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a32…8671backed Yes | 7c | 3,046$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 0c | 3,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 6c | 2,933$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.98 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 2,876$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.49 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d5…98aebacked Yes | 4c | 2,875$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.2 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…94acbacked Yes | 3c | 2,785$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.25 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1815…5961backed Yes | 8c | 2,765$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.41 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4020…d6c0backed Yes | 5c | 2,585$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.52 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…06a7backed Yes | 9c | 2,525$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.63 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…dd1fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,500$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.58 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…07f5backed Yes | 7c | 2,386$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf38e…7d84backed Yes | 7c | 2,216$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…2392backed Yes | 11c | 2,081$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.85 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bad…74a7backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8952…2d93backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d26…a627backed Yes | 4c | 1,929$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 1c | 1,900$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…7a3ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,790$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x022d…521cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,669$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x946f…6a27backed Yes | 2c | 1,657$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 2c | 1,634$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc7…b81cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes | 5c | 1,478$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.62 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda1…1d22backed Yes | 1c | 1,430$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…1f84backed Yes | 3c | 1,405$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf846…7341backed Yes | 8c | 1,346$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b74…200cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,303$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x202d…f8dabacked Yes | 4c | 1,273$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaff…7953backed Yes | 7c | 1,179$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c9…00fdbacked Yes | 5c | 1,172$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6050…80d6backed Yes | 8c | 1,107$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.36 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e56ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,060$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…02debacked Yes | 21c | 1,032$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed Yes | 5c | 1,031$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…84efbacked Yes | 11c | 1,000$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 74 | 14.9%11 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc366…a27bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…b09ebacked Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7892…1ea2backed Yes | 4c | 947.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb133…8b0dbacked Yes | 2c | 902$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x774f…ea29backed Yes | 2c | 880.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 3c | 832.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 128 | 6.3%8 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdae5…9f53backed Yes | 4c | 828.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 4c | 799.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258c…c543backed Yes | 2c | 786.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d2…1151backed Yes | 8c | 785.5$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.84 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6e…96ffbacked Yes | 6c | 750.18$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88f2…ab12backed Yes | 6c | 750$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f78…6987backed Yes | 3c | 736.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e33…82b1backed Yes | 3c | 735.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f85…1a32backed Yes | 5c | 711.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2015…3fbfbacked Yes | 2c | 700.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86ed…c1ecbacked Yes | 6c | 670$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a77…6502backed Yes | 4c | 643.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe756…fccfbacked Yes | 6c | 606.49$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x984d…f8eabacked Yes | 4c | 604.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c9…a6a5backed Yes | 7c | 595.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 5c | 568.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 2c | 565.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 108 | 14.8%16 W · 92 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4171…4f11backed Yes | 4c | 556.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe173…53e9backed Yes | 8c | 550$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2812…d393backed Yes | 4c | 530.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Moana 2' gross less than $135m on 5-day opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Moana 2' gross between $135-150m on 5-day opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Moana 2' gross between $150-165m on 5-day opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Moana 2' gross between $165-180m on 5-day opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Moana 2' gross more than $180m on 5-day opening weekend?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.