Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 160–174 times June 13–20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bf52074c1f81b4a2940af847e3abb3e0a3d1c05adcace151b07b627e4803b40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $646,826
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $315,094
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $646,826 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 237 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f1d…63d9backed Yes | 5c | 163,322$7,859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,859.02 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…aba3backed Yes | 0c | 28,600$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 8c | 22,153$1,789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,789.36 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 10c | 19,118$1,847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,846.65 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 4c | 17,781$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.12 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 6c | 16,206$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.28 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 16c | 15,395$2,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,479.88 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 6c | 12,100$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.98 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 15c | 9,618$1,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,480.05 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 4c | 9,126$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.8 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 10c | 9,088$947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.77 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 4c | 7,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…88e3backed Yes | 4c | 6,972$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 5c | 5,849$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.87 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed No | 75c | 5,767$4,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,451.88 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…920ebacked Yes | 8c | 5,225$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 12c | 4,810$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.25 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 2c | 4,541$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.66 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8de…c07fbacked Yes | 14c | 4,198$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.05 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 14c | 4,100$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.33 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 7c | 3,873$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.27 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 14c | 3,792$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.68 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 18c | 3,512$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.48 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 4c | 3,479$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.6 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaa…416dbacked Yes | 7c | 3,476$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.74 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -48%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 4c | 3,470$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.55 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…4107backed Yes | 15c | 3,329$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.15 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb6…6591backed Yes | 5c | 3,120$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08b8…4c4bbacked Yes | 27c | 3,028$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 7c | 3,025$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.49 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 9c | 2,977$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 69c | 2,910$2,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.57 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 20c | 2,576$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.56 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 13c | 2,424$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.95 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes | 34c | 2,000$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670 | 128 | 10.9%14 W · 114 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 29c | 2,000$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.72 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 16c | 1,673$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.6 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 14c | 1,599$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.72 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 39c | 1,512$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.55 | 88 | 22.7%20 W · 68 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 17c | 1,500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d02…220abacked Yes | 18c | 1,500$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.85 | 84 | 14.3%12 W · 72 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…1743backed Yes | 34c | 1,476$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…5c43backed Yes | 3c | 1,430$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 380 | 10%38 W · 342 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,404$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.91 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…7599backed Yes | 18c | 1,338$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.38 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…3186backed Yes | 26c | 1,300$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked No | 77c | 1,297$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.51 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9414…0b42backed Yes | 1c | 1,240$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 26c | 1,204$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.03 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 24c | 1,162$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.26 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9595…1b16backed Yes | 21c | 1,051$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.7 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…5efebacked Yes | 15c | 1,018$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.64 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 20cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8e…fdf6backed Yes | 25c | 1,006$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecef…b593backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.74 | 67 | 11.9%8 W · 59 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d85…19cfbacked No | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb26…94ddbacked Yes | 2c | 999.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…4074backed Yes | 13c | 989.99$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.6 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…c2f2backed Yes | 28c | 988.71$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.84 | 118 | 11%13 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 23c | 950$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.6 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed Yes | 17c | 901.01$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.65 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 20c | 830.84$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.54 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x385a…08d1backed Yes | 15c | 800$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…cfb0backed Yes | 23c | 781.84$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.6 | 134 | 7.5%10 W · 124 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…a403backed Yes | 13c | 781.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…2e5fbacked Yes | 39c | 770.51$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdc…ae37backed Yes | 16c | 761.53$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…5cd7backed Yes | 10c | 752.71$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 738.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 2c | 700$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No | 78c | 698.99$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.78 | 68 | 19.1%13 W · 55 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x248e…7b12backed Yes | 10c | 698.59$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.06 | 207 | 17.4%36 W · 171 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 695.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2260…9fcdbacked Yes | 18c | 603.12$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.51 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…4393backed Yes | 20c | 600$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 138 | 21.7%30 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 12c | 573.58$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.91 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeacd…8143backed Yes | 14c | 572$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +120.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94f2…9518backed Yes | 2c | 550$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…8371backed Yes | 10c | 527$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c11…c819backed Yes | 23c | 515.12$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02de…44e6backed Yes | 15c | 503$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x612f…aa53backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b5…7340backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc3…fce2backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…ccbabacked Yes | 13c | 500$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08e5…5d30backed Yes | 3c | 500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -53%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…48f9backed No | 79c | 491.33$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.22 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 18cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…cb1ebacked Yes | 8c | 478$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -83%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 32c | 468.4$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…8f73backed Yes | 25c | 468.02$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.01 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x543f…9dafbacked Yes | 29c | 467.86$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d15…e6ffbacked Yes | 3c | 464.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…cda9backed Yes | 13c | 463.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 78c | 455.48$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.56 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…782cbacked Yes | 12c | 452.47$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda10…ad11backed Yes | 6c | 450$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 55 | 12.7%7 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 160–174 times June 13–20?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100–114 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 115–129 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 130–144 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 145–159 times June 13–20?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 175–189 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 190–204 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 205–219 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 220–234 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 235–249 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250–264 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 265–279 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 280–294 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 295 or more times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times June 13–20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.