Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 280–294 times June 13–20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafabf16463bb2f62ddd5729086d0c60633e5631e38e1117019fb180a3c3708dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $390,092
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $390,092 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 0c | 84,499$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.5 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 1c | 13,537$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.4 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 0c | 8,098$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Yes | 1c | 7,152$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.96 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8e…fdf6backed Yes | 1c | 6,315$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 4,650$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 1c | 3,965$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 1c | 3,432$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.43 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b8…d54cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,507$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c7…e05abacked Yes | 1c | 2,292$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…3186backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3adc…ab29backed Yes | 3c | 1,571$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…ceabbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +61%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 2c | 1,393$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,255$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 1c | 1,190$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a54…e581backed Yes | 2c | 1,144$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced4…5055backed Yes | 2c | 1,026$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 67 | 11.9%8 W · 59 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…8bacbacked Yes | 3c | 999.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9d…8fedbacked Yes | 2c | 905.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0f…4394backed Yes | 3c | 724$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed Yes | 2c | 662.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 280–294 times June 13–20?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100–114 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 115–129 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 130–144 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 145–159 times June 13–20?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 160–174 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175–189 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 190–204 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 205–219 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 220–234 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 235–249 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250–264 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 265–279 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 295 or more times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times June 13–20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.