Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 115–129 times June 13–20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29fa71ea6235ceb1823931877f6bc26e5bd93243c12d72354b322239e0287b1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $887,722
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $324,337
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $887,722 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 173 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a4c…4bdbbacked Yes | 6c | 29,295$1,851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,850.81 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 1c | 28,525$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.25 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 3c | 26,884$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.13 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 2c | 23,940$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.95 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…1743backed Yes | 1c | 23,379$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1d…63d9backed Yes | 5c | 19,961$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,082.89 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 4c | 19,168$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.2 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 3c | 18,846$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.24 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 7c | 17,040$1,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,221.73 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 2c | 14,587$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.62 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 5c | 13,581$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.58 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 0c | 13,004$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.09 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a8…1965backed Yes | 1c | 12,510$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 2c | 12,008$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.16 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…cddabacked Yes | 1c | 11,929$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 3c | 11,782$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.21 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 2c | 11,703$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.5 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…c2f2backed Yes | 2c | 10,711$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.89 | 118 | 11%13 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 1c | 10,399$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.97 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd28c…5de7backed Yes | 3c | 9,315$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.25 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0d…e7f1backed Yes | 5c | 8,678$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 2c | 8,665$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.78 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 4c | 8,415$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.88 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8de…c07fbacked Yes | 9c | 7,657$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.67 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 1c | 7,620$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.7 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 7,174$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.75 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…1a76backed Yes | 1c | 7,081$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 6,319$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.37 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes | 3c | 6,000$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 128 | 10.9%14 W · 114 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaa…416dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,405$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.19 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -48%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…a9d3backed Yes | 2c | 5,122$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 5c | 5,077$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.13 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…a763backed Yes | 1c | 5,048$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 2c | 4,751$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.85 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…8d6dbacked Yes | 5c | 4,486$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.42 | 92 | 29.3%27 W · 65 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…8f73backed Yes | 2c | 4,393$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.85 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3598…ad60backed Yes | 1c | 4,260$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.59 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304a…0c57backed Yes | 2c | 4,231$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 3c | 3,962$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.85 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…a403backed Yes | 5c | 3,817$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…5c43backed Yes | 7c | 3,652$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.24 | 380 | 10%38 W · 342 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 3c | 3,626$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.9 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…2e5fbacked Yes | 4c | 3,272$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.59 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 4c | 3,096$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.52 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x625c…61d1backed Yes | 2c | 2,707$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…47e9backed Yes | 6c | 2,560$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 10c | 2,485$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.85 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba0e…9607backed Yes | 2c | 2,466$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.59 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2f…578fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,465$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.67 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…cfb0backed Yes | 6c | 2,247$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.3 | 134 | 7.5%10 W · 124 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc949…f6e4backed Yes | 1c | 2,204$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +442.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…2b2fbacked Yes | 0c | 2,145$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd179…4a0abacked Yes | 7c | 2,135$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 14c | 2,113$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.82 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2260…9fcdbacked Yes | 4c | 2,067$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 2,045$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.17 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 3c | 2,038$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.13 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8e…fdf6backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc3…fce2backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb959…7ee3backed Yes | 3c | 1,838$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 5c | 1,836$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.5 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed Yes | 4c | 1,786$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.33 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 4c | 1,692$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.54 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd63…bb2bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,661$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x573b…dbc3backed Yes | 3c | 1,618$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0100…c58abacked Yes | 1c | 1,528$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…4107backed Yes | 4c | 1,519$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…ded6backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…5efebacked Yes | 6c | 1,413$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.69 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 20cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3b…09c3backed Yes | 2c | 1,408$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +105.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa689…4cf5backed Yes | 4c | 1,407$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 12c | 1,400$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.3 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 3c | 1,391$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40af…d8eebacked Yes | 1c | 1,302$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5940…96edbacked Yes | 1c | 1,283$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…920ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,220$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 1,212$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.81 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ce…fa8cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,198$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 3c | 1,182$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00b8…abacbacked Yes | 1c | 1,164$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd626…89cebacked Yes | 3c | 1,155$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…9120backed Yes | 10c | 1,118$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 1c | 1,100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc028…9349backed Yes | 1c | 1,040$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…cda9backed Yes | 1c | 1,037$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42ed…7ad3backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f1…93a8backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 4c | 999.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…aeacbacked Yes | 1c | 997.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 7c | 995.13$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.75 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00de…3e7dbacked Yes | 11c | 986.74$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.26 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…8bacbacked Yes | 3c | 949.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f8…a80abacked Yes | 2c | 929.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -61%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77be…951abacked Yes | 4c | 900$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34cc…f5d2backed Yes | 1c | 891.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 115–129 times June 13–20?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100–114 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 130–144 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 145–159 times June 13–20?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 160–174 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175–189 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 190–204 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 205–219 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 220–234 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 235–249 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250–264 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 265–279 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 280–294 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 295 or more times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times June 13–20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.