Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 190–204 times June 13–20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bb24554f0888c57e03cd78cd5f92e248370c795fc1475c1078044360033bab7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $278,156
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,444
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $278,156 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 3c | 35,447$1,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,122.72 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 1c | 19,660$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.1 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 3c | 12,110$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.32 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 1c | 11,322$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.78 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 7c | 8,053$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.73 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…4074backed Yes | 7c | 5,650$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.5 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 9c | 5,502$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.86 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8e…fdf6backed Yes | 4c | 4,357$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 11c | 3,976$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.06 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 15c | 3,940$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.57 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 10c | 3,768$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.49 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 10c | 3,500$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08b8…4c4bbacked Yes | 15c | 2,945$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 13c | 2,908$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.64 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…3186backed Yes | 11c | 2,700$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 7c | 2,335$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.45 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 14c | 1,984$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.6 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 5c | 1,879$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.15 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf66d…f36fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,608$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 13c | 1,500$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.5 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 13c | 1,464$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…920ebacked Yes | 14c | 1,421$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,400$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeacd…8143backed Yes | 15c | 1,385$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +120.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 1,360$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.62 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 13c | 1,321$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.61 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 5c | 1,103$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d18…b702backed Yes | 14c | 1,036$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.08 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -76%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 11c | 1,001$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d02…220abacked Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 84 | 14.3%12 W · 72 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes | 14c | 1,000$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa3…da37backed Yes | 13c | 999.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 8c | 950$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa2…47eebacked Yes | 16c | 943.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 13c | 892.4$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 18c | 873.62$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.76 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda10…ad11backed Yes | 14c | 830.29$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.25 | 55 | 12.7%7 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc3…fce2backed Yes | 12c | 800$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd626…89cebacked Yes | 15c | 800$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 14c | 786.79$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.15 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 12c | 737$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.68 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…a403backed Yes | 14c | 723.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 8c | 649.89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d5…76a8backed Yes | 14c | 646.1$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.31 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c11…c819backed Yes | 16c | 625.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…4107backed Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 14c | 581.17$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x097f…2d35backed Yes | 15c | 547.47$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -52%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca1…050fbacked Yes | 2c | 544.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2260…9fcdbacked Yes | 13c | 521.43$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dea…8263backed Yes | 16c | 494.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x701c…4615backed Yes | 12c | 489.12$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe688…5f8fbacked Yes | 8c | 437.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab43…7c23backed Yes | 19c | 419.07$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.79 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 13c | 418.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.45 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 17c | 389.95$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.19 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07f…4000backed Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x625c…61d1backed Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c7…5142backed Yes | 14c | 372.37$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.79 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 127 | 45.7%58 W · 69 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…ccbabacked Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…4393backed Yes | 14c | 300$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 138 | 21.7%30 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x612f…aa53backed Yes | 15c | 299.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Yes | 14c | 294.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 12c | 294.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe084…5d7bbacked Yes | 14c | 285.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed Yes | 14c | 270$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 19c | 264.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf383…8b45backed Yes | 15c | 259.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ca…6412backed Yes | 9c | 250$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…1b66backed Yes | 13c | 235.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 234.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…782cbacked Yes | 15c | 233.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 14c | 225$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 15c | 213.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f6…6abdbacked Yes | 19c | 211.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x385a…08d1backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x899d…4adcbacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…d383backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a17…0389backed Yes | 15c | 198.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa862…46e2backed Yes | 16c | 192.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…5cd7backed Yes | 15c | 173.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…990abacked Yes | 13c | 170$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 732 | 15.2%111 W · 621 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2926…717abacked Yes | 15c | 168.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 12c | 165.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x063a…1499backed Yes | 12c | 160$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bce…c476backed Yes | 15c | 157.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…3acbbacked Yes | 15c | 153.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8379…7ca2backed Yes | 13c | 151.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…1da6backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07a4…fd85backed Yes | 11c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07a9…78b1backed Yes | 13c | 148.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a16…0eb4backed Yes | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c1…b34bbacked Yes | 14c | 146.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a94…0228backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 190–204 times June 13–20?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100–114 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 115–129 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 130–144 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 145–159 times June 13–20?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 160–174 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175–189 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 205–219 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 220–234 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 235–249 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250–264 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 265–279 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 280–294 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 295 or more times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times June 13–20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.